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- Author:
- Kim, Seon Tae; Jin, Fei-Fei
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1609-1627
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- El Nino; carbon dioxide; climate; climate change; greenhouse gases; models
- Abstract:
- ... In this study, a Bjerknes stability (BJ) index, proposed by Jin et al. (2006), is adopted to assess the overall stability of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in state-of-the-art coupled models. The twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of 12 coupled models among the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 models used in the intergovernmental panel on climate change forth asse ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0872-5
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0872-5
- Author:
- Kim, Seon Tae; Jin, Fei-Fei
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1593-1607
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- El Nino; simulation models; time series analysis; wind
- Abstract:
- ... In this study, we use the Bjerknes stability (BJ) index as a tool to investigate overall El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stability in a hybrid-coupled model (HCM) with various atmosphere and ocean background states. This HCM shows that ENSO growth rates as measured by the BJ index and linear growth rates estimated directly with a time series of the Niño 3.4 indices from the coupled model simul ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0796-0
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0796-0
- Author:
- Christie, Duncan A.; Boninsegna, José A.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Lara, Antonio; Le Quesne, Carlos; Morales, Mariano S.; Mudelsee, Manfred; Stahle, David W.; Villalba, Ricardo
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1505-1521
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- El Nino; Libocedrus chilensis; biodiversity; climate change; correlation; drought; ecosystems; growth rings; human population; latitude; risk; seeds; spring; stream flow; summer; water resources; Andes region; Antarctic region; South America
- Abstract:
- ... The Andes Cordillera acts as regional “Water Towers” for several countries and encompasses a wide range of ecosystems and climates. Several hydroclimatic changes have been described for portions of the Andes during recent years, including glacier retreat, negative precipitation trends, an elevation rise in the 0° isotherm, and changes in regional streamflow regimes. The Temperate-Mediterranean tra ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-009-0723-4
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0723-4
- Author:
- Speer, Milton Samuel; Leslie, Lance M.; Fierro, Alexandre O.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1419-1429
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- El Nino; air; air flow; atmospheric circulation; climate; periodicity; rain; troposphere; wavelet; Australia
- Abstract:
- ... Rainfall on the subtropical east coast of Australia has declined at up to 50 mm per decade since 1970. Wavelet analysis is used to investigate eight station and four station-averaged rainfall distributions along Australia's subtropical east coast with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the southern annular mode (SAM). The relationshi ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-009-0726-1
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0726-1
- Author:
- Vavrus, Steve; Holland, Marika M.; Bailey, David A.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1475-1489
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- autumn; climate change; climate models; cloud cover; ice; icebergs; summer; water content; winter; Arctic region
- Abstract:
- ... We investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000 and 2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds prom ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0816-0
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0816-0
- Author:
- Wang, Shih-Yu; Chen, Tsing-Chang; Takle, Eugene S.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1221-1237
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- General Circulation Models; air; deformation; heat; storms; summer; temperature profiles; Great Plains region; Rocky Mountain region; United States
- Abstract:
- ... Propagating convective storms across the US northern plains are often coupled with preexisting midtropospheric perturbations (MPs) initiated over the Rocky Mountains. A companion study (Part I) notes that such MPs occur most commonly at 12 UTC (early morning) and 00 UTC (late afternoon). Using a regional reanalysis and a general circulation model (GCM), this study investigates how such a bimodal d ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0765-7
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0765-7
- Author:
- Shin, Sang-Ik; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1577-1591
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- air temperature; climate change; climate models; drought; oceans; tropics; Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Greenland; North America; Northern Africa
- Abstract:
- ... Evidence is presented that the recent trend patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean (North America, Greenland, Europe, and North Africa) have been strongly influenced by the warming pattern of the tropical oceans. The current generation of atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models with prescribed radiative forcing changes genera ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-009-0732-3
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0732-3
- Author:
- Zhao, Mei; Wang, Guomin; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1291-1302
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- El Nino; cold; models; momentum; tropics; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean
- Abstract:
- ... Impacts on the coupled variability of the Indo-Pacific by including the effects of surface currents on surface stress are explored in four extended integrations of an experimental version of the Bureau of Meteorology's coupled seasonal forecast model POAMA. The first pair of simulations differs only in their treatment of momentum coupling: one version includes the effects of surface currents on th ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0823-1
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0823-1
- Author:
- Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kang, In-Sik
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1277-1290
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- El Nino; tropics; weather forecasting
- Abstract:
- ... Positive impacts of tropical instability waves (TIWs) in initial conditions on seasonal forecasts are investigated using a air-sea coupled GCM. Due to coarse observational networks and deficiencies in widely-used initialization methods (e.g. 3DVAR or OI methods), TIW variability in oceanic initial conditions is excessively suppressed. It ruins the interaction between TIWs and climate states, there ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0743-0
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0743-0
- Author:
- Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Mathiot, Pierre; Gallée, Hubert; Barnier, Bernard
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1523-1543
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- air; air temperature; coasts; cold; cooling; heat; ice; icebergs; models; salinity; surface temperature; water temperature; Antarctica
- Abstract:
- ... Air-sea ice-ocean interactions in the Ross Sea sector form dense waters that feed the global thermohaline circulation. In this paper, we develop the new limited-area ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model TANGO to simulate the Ross Sea sector. TANGO is built up by coupling the atmospheric limited-area model MAR to a regional configuration of the ocean-sea ice model NEMO. A method is then developed ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0889-9
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0889-9
- Author:
- Ashfaq, Moetasim; Skinner, Christopher B.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1303-1319
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- climate change; climate models; greenhouses; hydrologic cycle; salinity; surface temperature; tropics; water content
- Abstract:
- ... We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977-1999 in the historical period and 2077-2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boun ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0875-2
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0875-2
- Author:
- Holland, Marika M.; Bailey, David A.; Vavrus, Steve
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1239-1253
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- climate models; ice; icebergs; prediction; regression analysis; simulation models; spring; summer; Arctic region
- Abstract:
- ... Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice have typically been based on statistical regression models or on results from ensemble ice model forecasts driven by historical atmospheric forcing. However, in the rapidly changing Arctic environment, the predictability characteristics of summer ice cover could undergo important transformations. Here global coupled climate model simulations are used to asses ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0792-4
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0792-4
- Author:
- Valsala, Vinu; Alsibai, Hayyan M.; Ikeda, Motoyoshi; Maksyutov, Shamil
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1435-1452
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- absorption; inventories; latitude; models; oceans; summer; wind; winter; Pacific Ocean
- Abstract:
- ... The global ocean Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11) was simulated in an offline model driven by re-analysis ocean currents in order to identify the mechanisms of interannual to interdecadal variability of air-sea CFC fluxes. The model was forced with the observed anthropogenic perturbations of atmospheric CFC-11 from the post industrial period (1938) following the OCMIP-II flux protocols along with the o ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0784-4
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0784-4
- Author:
- Yadav, Ram R.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1453-1462
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- Cedrus deodara; El Nino; climate; drought; growth rings; monsoon season; spectral analysis; India
- Abstract:
- ... Tree-ring-width data of Himalayan cedar [Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don] from 11 homogeneous moisture stressed sites in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalaya were used to develop a mean chronology extending back to ad 1353. The chronology developed using Regional Curve Standardization method is the first from the Himalayan region of India showing centennial-scale variations. The calibrati ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0800-8
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0800-8
- Author:
- Msadek, Rym; Frankignoul, Claude; Li, Laurent Z. X.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1255-1276
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- atmospheric circulation; climate models; cooling; seasonal variation; summer; surface temperature; winter; Atlantic Ocean; Iceland
- Abstract:
- ... The atmospheric circulation response to decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the IPSL climate model is investigated using the associated sea surface temperature signature. A SST anomaly is prescribed in sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric component of the IPSL model coupled to a slab ocean. The prescribed SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is the ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0958-0
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0958-0
- Author:
- Swingedouw, D.; Terray, L.; Cassou, C.; Voldoire, A.; Salas-Mélia, D.; Servonnat, J.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1349-1364
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- climate; climate models; simulation models; solar radiation; surface temperature; wind; winter; Pacific Ocean
- Abstract:
- ... The variability of the climate during the last millennium is partly forced by changes in total solar irradiance (TSI). Nevertheless, the amplitude of these TSI changes is very small so that recent reconstruction data suggest that low frequency variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and in the thermohaline circulation may have amplified, in the North Atlantic sector and mostly in winter ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0803-5
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0803-5
- Author:
- Lu, Bei-Wei; Pandolfo, Lionel
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1491-1504
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- cold season; data collection; latitude; neural networks; periodicity; principal component analysis; stratosphere; time series analysis; warm season; wind; Arctic region
- Abstract:
- ... A nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) is applied to a set of monthly mean time series from January 1956 to December 2007 consisting of the Arctic oscillation (AO) index derived from 1,000-hPa geopotential height anomalies poleward of 20°N latitude and the zonal winds observed at seven pressure levels between 10 and 70 hPa in the equatorial stratosphere to investigate the relation of the ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0773-7
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0773-7
- Author:
- Paeth, Heiko; Diederich, Malte
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1337-1348
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- algorithms; atmospheric circulation; climate; climate models; data collection; hydrologic models; probability; rain; rain intensity; Benin
- Abstract:
- ... Data from global and regional climate models refer to grid cells and, hence, are basically different from station data. This particularly holds for variables with enhanced spatio-temporal variability like precipitation. On the other hand, many applications like for instance hydrological models require atmospheric data with the statistical characteristics of station data. Here, we present a dynamic ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0840-0
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0840-0
- Author:
- Paeth, Heiko
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1321-1336
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- atmospheric circulation; climate; climate models; data collection; food security; hydrologic cycle; latitude; meteorological data; rain; rainfall simulation; regression analysis; sea level; seasonal variation; simulation models; statistical models; temperature; thermodynamics; wind; Western Africa
- Abstract:
- ... Rainfall represents an important factor in agriculture and food security, particularly, in the low latitudes. Climatological and hydrological studies which attempt to diagnose the hydrological cycle, require high-quality precipitation data. In West Africa, like in many parts of the world, the density of observational data is low and climate models are needed in order to perform homogeneous and com ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0760-z
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0760-z
- Author:
- Agudelo, Paula A.; Hoyos, Carlos D.; Curry, Judith A.; Webster, Peter J.
- Source:
- Climate dynamics 2011 v.36 no.7-8 pp. 1379-1401
- ISSN:
- 0930-7575
- Subject:
- data collection; environmental factors; heat; humidity; hurricanes; prediction; risk; wind
- Abstract:
- ... About 50-60% of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) including nearly 85% of intense hurricanes have their origins as African Easterly Waves (AEWs). However, predicting the likelihood of AEW intensification remains a difficult task. We have developed a Bayesian diagnostic methodology to understand genesis of North Atlantic TCs spawned by AEWs through the examination of the characteristics of the AEW i ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s00382-010-0851-x
-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0851-x