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1. Actor-specific risk perceptions and strategies for resilience building in different food systems in Kenya and Bolivia

Author:
Jacobi, Johanna; Mukhovi, Stellah; Llanque, Aymara; Toledo, Daniela; Speranza, Chinwe Ifejika; Käser, Fabian; Augstburger, Horacio; Delgado, José Manuel Freddy; Kiteme, Boniface P.; Rist, Stephan
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 879-892
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
farmers; food supply chain; issues and policy; pastoralism; risk perception; risk reduction; uncertainty; Bolivia; Kenya
Abstract:
... Food system sustainability depends, among other aspects, on the resilience of different components of food systems. By resilience, we mean the ability of a food system to withstand stress and shocks, recover, and adapt to change. In this study, we examined the resilience of food systems, firstly, by compiling the risks perceived by different food system actors in the Santa Cruz Department, Bolivia ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1448-x

2. A quantitative assessment of mid-term risks of global change on forests in Western Mediterranean Europe

Author:
Gil-Tena, Assu; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Comas, Lluís; Retana, Javier; Vayreda, Jordi; Brotons, Lluís
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 819-831
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
Pinus halepensis; Pinus sylvestris; climate; climate change; deforestation; drought tolerance; ecological value; forest stands; humans; land use change; models; old-growth forests; risk; risk assessment; trees; Spain
Abstract:
... Assessment of potential forests’ threats due to multiple global change components is urgently needed since increasing exposure to them could undermine their future persistence. We aim to assess the risks to the persistence of monospecific forests in Western Mediterranean Europe posed by climate change, fire, and land-use changes (i.e., deforestation) in the short and medium terms (horizon 2040). W ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1437-0

3. Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Author:
Capela Lourenço, Tiago; Cruz, Maria João; Dzebo, Adis; Carlsen, Henrik; Dunn, Miriam; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pinter, Laszlo
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 629-642
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
European Union; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; case studies; climate; climate change; decision making; socioeconomics; temperature; uncertainty; Hungary; Portugal; Scotland
Abstract:
... Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4 °C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1362-2

4. Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios

Author:
Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Onigkeit, Janina; Brown, Calum; Holman, Ian; Harrison, Paula A.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 655-666
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
center of gravity; climate change; models; probability distribution; stakeholders; uncertainty
Abstract:
... Uncertainties in our understanding of current and future climate change projections, impacts and vulnerabilities are structured by scientists using scenarios, which are generally in qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (numerical) forms. Although conceptually strong, qualitative and quantitative scenarios have limited complementarity due to the lack of a fundamental bridge between two differen ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1338-2

5. Cross-border climate change impacts: implications for the European Union

Author:
Benzie, Magnus; Carter, Timothy R.; Carlsen, Henrik; Taylor, Richard
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 763-776
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
European Union; capital; climate; climate change; cohesion; globalization; markets; models; monitoring; planning; risk; supply chain; trade
Abstract:
... The European Union (EU) is increasingly connected to the rest of the world via flows of people, capital, goods and resources, exposing it to the potential impacts of climate change occurring outside its borders, in addition to impacts occurring on and between EU countries themselves. However, there is currently no peer-reviewed literature that describes the way in which cross-border impacts might ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1436-1

6. Defining transformative climate science to address high-end climate change

Author:
David Tàbara, J.; Jäger, Jill; Mangalagiu, Diana; Grasso, Marco
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 807-818
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
climate; climate change; environmental assessment; issues and policy; learning; sustainable development; Central Asia; Hungary; Iberian Peninsula; Scotland
Abstract:
... High-end climate change requires transformative solutions, as conventional strategies and solutions will not be enough if major disruptions in social-ecological systems are to be avoided. However, conventional climate assessment approaches and methods show many limitations if they are to provide robust knowledge and support to the implementation of such solutions in practice. To this end, we defin ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1288-8

7. Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

Author:
Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.; Pirttioja, Nina; Alkemade, Rob; Audsley, Eric; Bugmann, Harald; Flörke, Martina; Holman, Ian; Honda, Yasushi; Ito, Akihiko; Janes-Bassett, Victoria; Lafond, Valentine; Leemans, Rik; Mokrech, Marc; Nunez, Sarahi; Sandars, Daniel; Snell, Rebecca; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tanaka, Akemi; Wimmer, Florian; Yoshikawa, Minoru
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 679-693
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
Picea abies; Pinus sylvestris; Quercus ilex; agricultural land; biodiversity; climatic factors; corn; crop yield; crops; floods; forestry; forests; land use; models; mortality; river flow; socioeconomic factors; temperature; trees; Baltic States; Central European region; Eastern European region; Finland; Ireland; Northern European region; Southern European region; Spain
Abstract:
... Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-econ ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8

8. Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors

Author:
Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Rob W.; Holman, Ian P.; Cojocaru, George; Madsen, Marianne S.; Chen, Pei-Yuan; Pedde, Simona; Sandars, Daniel
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 695-709
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; biodiversity; climate; climate change; climate models; coasts; food production; forestry; forests; intensive farming; land use; risk reduction; socioeconomic factors; sustainable development; water stress; Europe
Abstract:
... The Paris Agreement established the 1.5 and 2 °C targets based on the recognition “that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. We tested this assertion by comparing impacts at the regional scale between low-end (< 2 °C; RCP2.6) and high-end (> 4 °C; RCP8.5) climate change scenarios accounting for interactions across six sectors (agriculture, forestry, biodiversit ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1352-4

9. From cattle to camels: trajectories of livelihood adaptation and social-ecological resilience in a Kenyan pastoralist community

Author:
Volpato, Gabriele; King, Elizabeth G.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 849-865
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
analytical methods; arid lands; assets; camels; cattle; climate; decision making; environmental factors; households; issues and policy; livelihood; pastoralism; politics; social cohesion
Abstract:
... In drylands across the globe, natural resource-dependent societies are experiencing rapid rates of environmental change as well as transforming social, economic, and political contexts. When novel adaptation strategies are adopted in response to changing climatic and environmental conditions, outcomes are often contingent on individual households’ adaptive capacities as well as broader environment ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1438-z

10. Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models

Author:
Holman, Ian P.; Brown, Calum; Carter, Timothy R.; Harrison, Paula A.; Rounsevell, Mark
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 711-721
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
climate change; humans; land use; models; uncertainty; water management
Abstract:
... Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4

11. Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change

Author:
Holzhauer, Sascha; Brown, Calum; Rounsevell, Mark
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 733-746
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
climate change; ecosystem services; empirical research; land use change; land use planning; models; monitoring; socioeconomics
Abstract:
... Formal institutions impact on the dynamics of land use change through their objectives, actions and decision-making processes in response to socio-economic or environmental changes such as climate change. The effects and interplay of these actions are not fully understood, and hence, institutional processes are rarely integrated in modelling analyses of land use change. The complex effects of inst ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5

12. Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe

Author:
Terama, Emma; Clarke, Elizabeth; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 667-677
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
age structure; growth models; land use change; population dynamics; urban areas; urbanization; Europe
Abstract:
... Population structure and dynamics are important drivers of land use. In this article, we present the methods and outcomes of integrating population projections across multiple spatial scales with an urban growth model. By linking shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)-specific national population projections to present-day population distributions at a sub-national scale, we describe a downscaling app ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5

13. New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways

Author:
Kok, Kasper; Pedde, Simona; Gramberger, Marc; Harrison, Paula A.; Holman, Ian P.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 643-654
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
climate change; fossil fuels; lifestyle; planning; socioeconomics; storms; Europe
Abstract:
... Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel met ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0

14. Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium accounts in the Brazilian livestock agro-industrial system

Author:
Gameiro, Augusto Hauber; Bonaudo, Thierry; Tichit, Muriel
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 893-905
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
cattle; circular economy; emissions; environmental degradation; environmental impact; farm management; herds; inventories; material flow analysis; nitrogen; nutrient use efficiency; phosphorus; potassium; poultry; swine; swine production; wastes; Brazil
Abstract:
... We estimated the inventories of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in the Brazilian livestock agro-industrial system (BLAS) using a dynamic substance flow accounting approach based on the industrial metabolism concept. Our main objective was to derive indicators of sustainability: evolution of total NPK mass involved in the system, dependence on international exchanges, and relative us ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1451-2

15. Production of risk: multiple interacting exposures and unequal vulnerability in coastal communities

Author:
Oulahen, Greg; McBean, Gordon; Shrubsole, Dan; Chang, Stephanie E.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 867-877
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
case studies; empirical research; risk; British Columbia
Abstract:
... Risk is produced by the interaction of exposure to hazards in a place and the vulnerability of the people that live there. Research on the factors that influence vulnerability has advanced a conceptual understanding of the uneven nature of risk. Just as many factors, or determinants, of vulnerability interact to shape risk, so too do multiple exposures. The idea that multiple hazard exposures affe ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1440-5

16. South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Author:
Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Wijngaard, René R.; Biemans, Hester; Syed, Abu; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 833-847
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
General Circulation Models; climate; global warming; temperature; watersheds; South Asia
Abstract:
... In 2015, with the signing of the “Paris Agreement”, 195 countries committed to limiting the increase in global temperature to less than 2 °C with respect to pre-industrial levels and to aim at limiting the increase to 1.5 °C by 2100. The regional ramifications of those thresholds remain however largely unknown and variability in the magnitude of change and the associated impacts are yet to be quan ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4

17. Steering transformations under climate change: capacities for transformative climate governance and the case of Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Author:
Hölscher, Katharina; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Loorbach, Derk
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 791-805
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
case studies; climate; climate change; emissions; governance; landscapes; Netherlands
Abstract:
... In light of the persistent failure to reduce emissions decisively, facilitate long-term resilience against climate change and account for the connectedness of climate change with other social, environmental and economic concerns, we present a conceptual framework of capacities for transformative climate governance. Transformative climate governance enables climate mitigation and adaptation while p ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1329-3

18. The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

Author:
Dunn, Miriam; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Boberg, Fredrik; Clarke, Elizabeth; Christensen, Jens; Madsen, Marianne S.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 723-732
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
climate; climate change; data collection; latitude; summer; temperature; topography; viticulture; wine grapes; winemaking; Scotland
Abstract:
... Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty-first century. This raises the possibility of future temperatures becoming sufficiently high to support ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-017-1240-3

19. Towards agent-based integrated assessment models: examples, challenges, and future developments

Author:
Lamperti, Francesco; Mandel, Antoine; Napoletano, Mauro; Sapio, Alessandro; Roventini, Andrea; Balint, Tomas; Khorenzhenko, Igor
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 747-762
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
anthropogenic activities; climate change; climatic factors; economic development; energy; environmental policy; finance; macroeconomics; models; prototypes
Abstract:
... Understanding the complex, dynamic, and non-linear relationships between human activities, the environment and the evolution of the climate is pivotal for policy design and requires appropriate tools. Despite the existence of different attempts to link the economy (or parts of it) to the evolution of the climate, results have often been disappointing and criticized. In this paper, we discuss the u ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1287-9

20. Transition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2 °C climate futures of Europe

Author:
Frantzeskaki, Niki; Hölscher, Katharina; Holman, Ian P.; Pedde, Simona; Jaeger, Jill; Kok, Kasper; Harrison, Paula A.
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 777-789
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; climate; climate change; energy; governance; greenhouse gas emissions; lifestyle; resource management; scenario uncertainty; stakeholders; Europe
Abstract:
... The complex challenges arising from climate change that exceeds the +2 °C target (termed ‘high-end climate change’) in Europe require new integrative responses to support transformations to a more sustainable future. We present a novel methodology that combines transition management and high-end climate and socioeconomic change scenarios to identify pathways and move Europe closer to sustainabilit ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-019-01475-x