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- Author:
- Jacobi, Johanna; Mukhovi, Stellah; Llanque, Aymara; Toledo, Daniela; Speranza, Chinwe Ifejika; Käser, Fabian; Augstburger, Horacio; Delgado, José Manuel Freddy; Kiteme, Boniface P.; Rist, Stephan
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 879-892
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- farmers; food supply chain; issues and policy; pastoralism; risk perception; risk reduction; uncertainty; Bolivia; Kenya
- Abstract:
- ... Food system sustainability depends, among other aspects, on the resilience of different components of food systems. By resilience, we mean the ability of a food system to withstand stress and shocks, recover, and adapt to change. In this study, we examined the resilience of food systems, firstly, by compiling the risks perceived by different food system actors in the Santa Cruz Department, Bolivia ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1448-x
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1448-x
- Author:
- Gil-Tena, Assu; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Comas, Lluís; Retana, Javier; Vayreda, Jordi; Brotons, Lluís
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 819-831
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- Pinus halepensis; Pinus sylvestris; climate; climate change; deforestation; drought tolerance; ecological value; forest stands; humans; land use change; models; old-growth forests; risk; risk assessment; trees; Spain
- Abstract:
- ... Assessment of potential forests’ threats due to multiple global change components is urgently needed since increasing exposure to them could undermine their future persistence. We aim to assess the risks to the persistence of monospecific forests in Western Mediterranean Europe posed by climate change, fire, and land-use changes (i.e., deforestation) in the short and medium terms (horizon 2040). W ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1437-0
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1437-0
- Author:
- Capela Lourenço, Tiago; Cruz, Maria João; Dzebo, Adis; Carlsen, Henrik; Dunn, Miriam; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pinter, Laszlo
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 629-642
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- European Union; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; case studies; climate; climate change; decision making; socioeconomics; temperature; uncertainty; Hungary; Portugal; Scotland
- Abstract:
- ... Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4 °C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1362-2
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1362-2
- Author:
- Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Onigkeit, Janina; Brown, Calum; Holman, Ian; Harrison, Paula A.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 655-666
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- center of gravity; climate change; models; probability distribution; stakeholders; uncertainty
- Abstract:
- ... Uncertainties in our understanding of current and future climate change projections, impacts and vulnerabilities are structured by scientists using scenarios, which are generally in qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (numerical) forms. Although conceptually strong, qualitative and quantitative scenarios have limited complementarity due to the lack of a fundamental bridge between two differen ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1338-2
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1338-2
- Author:
- Benzie, Magnus; Carter, Timothy R.; Carlsen, Henrik; Taylor, Richard
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 763-776
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- European Union; capital; climate; climate change; cohesion; globalization; markets; models; monitoring; planning; risk; supply chain; trade
- Abstract:
- ... The European Union (EU) is increasingly connected to the rest of the world via flows of people, capital, goods and resources, exposing it to the potential impacts of climate change occurring outside its borders, in addition to impacts occurring on and between EU countries themselves. However, there is currently no peer-reviewed literature that describes the way in which cross-border impacts might ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1436-1
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1436-1
- Author:
- David Tàbara, J.; Jäger, Jill; Mangalagiu, Diana; Grasso, Marco
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 807-818
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- climate; climate change; environmental assessment; issues and policy; learning; sustainable development; Central Asia; Hungary; Iberian Peninsula; Scotland
- Abstract:
- ... High-end climate change requires transformative solutions, as conventional strategies and solutions will not be enough if major disruptions in social-ecological systems are to be avoided. However, conventional climate assessment approaches and methods show many limitations if they are to provide robust knowledge and support to the implementation of such solutions in practice. To this end, we defin ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1288-8
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1288-8
- Author:
- Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.; Pirttioja, Nina; Alkemade, Rob; Audsley, Eric; Bugmann, Harald; Flörke, Martina; Holman, Ian; Honda, Yasushi; Ito, Akihiko; Janes-Bassett, Victoria; Lafond, Valentine; Leemans, Rik; Mokrech, Marc; Nunez, Sarahi; Sandars, Daniel; Snell, Rebecca; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tanaka, Akemi; Wimmer, Florian; Yoshikawa, Minoru
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 679-693
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- Picea abies; Pinus sylvestris; Quercus ilex; agricultural land; biodiversity; climatic factors; corn; crop yield; crops; floods; forestry; forests; land use; models; mortality; river flow; socioeconomic factors; temperature; trees; Baltic States; Central European region; Eastern European region; Finland; Ireland; Northern European region; Southern European region; Spain
- Abstract:
- ... Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-econ ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
- Author:
- Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Rob W.; Holman, Ian P.; Cojocaru, George; Madsen, Marianne S.; Chen, Pei-Yuan; Pedde, Simona; Sandars, Daniel
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 695-709
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; biodiversity; climate; climate change; climate models; coasts; food production; forestry; forests; intensive farming; land use; risk reduction; socioeconomic factors; sustainable development; water stress; Europe
- Abstract:
- ... The Paris Agreement established the 1.5 and 2 °C targets based on the recognition “that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. We tested this assertion by comparing impacts at the regional scale between low-end (< 2 °C; RCP2.6) and high-end (> 4 °C; RCP8.5) climate change scenarios accounting for interactions across six sectors (agriculture, forestry, biodiversit ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1352-4
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1352-4
- Author:
- Volpato, Gabriele; King, Elizabeth G.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 849-865
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- analytical methods; arid lands; assets; camels; cattle; climate; decision making; environmental factors; households; issues and policy; livelihood; pastoralism; politics; social cohesion
- Abstract:
- ... In drylands across the globe, natural resource-dependent societies are experiencing rapid rates of environmental change as well as transforming social, economic, and political contexts. When novel adaptation strategies are adopted in response to changing climatic and environmental conditions, outcomes are often contingent on individual households’ adaptive capacities as well as broader environment ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1438-z
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1438-z
- Author:
- Holman, Ian P.; Brown, Calum; Carter, Timothy R.; Harrison, Paula A.; Rounsevell, Mark
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 711-721
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- climate change; humans; land use; models; uncertainty; water management
- Abstract:
- ... Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4
- PubMed:
- 30956567
- PubMed Central:
- PMC6418063
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4
- Author:
- Holzhauer, Sascha; Brown, Calum; Rounsevell, Mark
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 733-746
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- climate change; ecosystem services; empirical research; land use change; land use planning; models; monitoring; socioeconomics
- Abstract:
- ... Formal institutions impact on the dynamics of land use change through their objectives, actions and decision-making processes in response to socio-economic or environmental changes such as climate change. The effects and interplay of these actions are not fully understood, and hence, institutional processes are rarely integrated in modelling analyses of land use change. The complex effects of inst ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5
- Author:
- Terama, Emma; Clarke, Elizabeth; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 667-677
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- age structure; growth models; land use change; population dynamics; urban areas; urbanization; Europe
- Abstract:
- ... Population structure and dynamics are important drivers of land use. In this article, we present the methods and outcomes of integrating population projections across multiple spatial scales with an urban growth model. By linking shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)-specific national population projections to present-day population distributions at a sub-national scale, we describe a downscaling app ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5
- Author:
- Kok, Kasper; Pedde, Simona; Gramberger, Marc; Harrison, Paula A.; Holman, Ian P.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 643-654
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- climate change; fossil fuels; lifestyle; planning; socioeconomics; storms; Europe
- Abstract:
- ... Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel met ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0
- Author:
- Gameiro, Augusto Hauber; Bonaudo, Thierry; Tichit, Muriel
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 893-905
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- cattle; circular economy; emissions; environmental degradation; environmental impact; farm management; herds; inventories; material flow analysis; nitrogen; nutrient use efficiency; phosphorus; potassium; poultry; swine; swine production; wastes; Brazil
- Abstract:
- ... We estimated the inventories of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in the Brazilian livestock agro-industrial system (BLAS) using a dynamic substance flow accounting approach based on the industrial metabolism concept. Our main objective was to derive indicators of sustainability: evolution of total NPK mass involved in the system, dependence on international exchanges, and relative us ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1451-2
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1451-2
- Author:
- Oulahen, Greg; McBean, Gordon; Shrubsole, Dan; Chang, Stephanie E.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 867-877
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- case studies; empirical research; risk; British Columbia
- Abstract:
- ... Risk is produced by the interaction of exposure to hazards in a place and the vulnerability of the people that live there. Research on the factors that influence vulnerability has advanced a conceptual understanding of the uneven nature of risk. Just as many factors, or determinants, of vulnerability interact to shape risk, so too do multiple exposures. The idea that multiple hazard exposures affe ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1440-5
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1440-5
- Author:
- Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Wijngaard, René R.; Biemans, Hester; Syed, Abu; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 833-847
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- General Circulation Models; climate; global warming; temperature; watersheds; South Asia
- Abstract:
- ... In 2015, with the signing of the “Paris Agreement”, 195 countries committed to limiting the increase in global temperature to less than 2 °C with respect to pre-industrial levels and to aim at limiting the increase to 1.5 °C by 2100. The regional ramifications of those thresholds remain however largely unknown and variability in the magnitude of change and the associated impacts are yet to be quan ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4
- Author:
- Hölscher, Katharina; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Loorbach, Derk
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 791-805
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- case studies; climate; climate change; emissions; governance; landscapes; Netherlands
- Abstract:
- ... In light of the persistent failure to reduce emissions decisively, facilitate long-term resilience against climate change and account for the connectedness of climate change with other social, environmental and economic concerns, we present a conceptual framework of capacities for transformative climate governance. Transformative climate governance enables climate mitigation and adaptation while p ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1329-3
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1329-3
- Author:
- Dunn, Miriam; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Boberg, Fredrik; Clarke, Elizabeth; Christensen, Jens; Madsen, Marianne S.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 723-732
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- climate; climate change; data collection; latitude; summer; temperature; topography; viticulture; wine grapes; winemaking; Scotland
- Abstract:
- ... Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty-first century. This raises the possibility of future temperatures becoming sufficiently high to support ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-017-1240-3
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1240-3
- Author:
- Lamperti, Francesco; Mandel, Antoine; Napoletano, Mauro; Sapio, Alessandro; Roventini, Andrea; Balint, Tomas; Khorenzhenko, Igor
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 747-762
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- anthropogenic activities; climate change; climatic factors; economic development; energy; environmental policy; finance; macroeconomics; models; prototypes
- Abstract:
- ... Understanding the complex, dynamic, and non-linear relationships between human activities, the environment and the evolution of the climate is pivotal for policy design and requires appropriate tools. Despite the existence of different attempts to link the economy (or parts of it) to the evolution of the climate, results have often been disappointing and criticized. In this paper, we discuss the u ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-018-1287-9
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1287-9
- Author:
- Frantzeskaki, Niki; Hölscher, Katharina; Holman, Ian P.; Pedde, Simona; Jaeger, Jill; Kok, Kasper; Harrison, Paula A.
- Source:
- Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.3 pp. 777-789
- ISSN:
- 1436-3798
- Subject:
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; climate; climate change; energy; governance; greenhouse gas emissions; lifestyle; resource management; scenario uncertainty; stakeholders; Europe
- Abstract:
- ... The complex challenges arising from climate change that exceeds the +2 °C target (termed ‘high-end climate change’) in Europe require new integrative responses to support transformations to a more sustainable future. We present a novel methodology that combines transition management and high-end climate and socioeconomic change scenarios to identify pathways and move Europe closer to sustainabilit ...
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10113-019-01475-x
-
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01475-x