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1. Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

Author:
Schmittner, Andreas; Urban, Nathan M.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Clark, Peter U.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Mix, Alan C.; Rosell-Melé, Antoni
Source:
Science 2011 v.334 no.6061 pp. 1385-1388
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
carbon; carbon dioxide; climate; climate change; climate models; emissions; simulation models; surface temperature; uncertainty
Abstract:
... Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1203513

2. The Role of Carbon Dioxide During the Onset of Antarctic Glaciation

Author:
Pagani, Mark; Huber, Matthew; Liu, Zhonghui; Bohaty, Steven M.; Henderiks, Jorijntje; Sijp, Willem; Krishnan, Srinath; DeConto, Robert M.
Source:
Science 2011 v.334 no.6060 pp. 1261-1264
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
carbon dioxide; climate; climate change; glaciation; ice; latitude; temperature profiles; Antarctic region
Abstract:
... Earth’s modern climate, characterized by polar ice sheets and large equator-to-pole temperature gradients, is rooted in environmental changes that promoted Antarctic glaciation approximately 33.7 million years ago. Onset of Antarctic glaciation reflects a critical tipping point for Earth’s climate and provides a framework for investigating the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) during major ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1203909

3. The Influence of Late Quaternary Climate-Change Velocity on Species Endemism

Author:
Sandel, B.; Arge, L.; Dalsgaard, B.; Davies, R. G.; Gaston, K. J.; Sutherland, W. J.; Svenning, J.-C.
Source:
Science 2011 v.334 no.6056 pp. 660-664
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
amphibians; biodiversity; birds; climate; climate change; extinction; indigenous species; mammals; risk
Abstract:
... The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species’ capacity to migrate. We estimated Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1210173

4. The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Author:
Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brander, Keith M.; Brown, Chris; Bruno, John F.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O’Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin B.; Sydeman, William J.; Richardson, Anthony J.
Source:
Science 2011 v.334 no.6056 pp. 652-655
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
biodiversity; climate; climate change; latitude; phenology; space and time; temperature; terrestrial ecosystems
Abstract:
... Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both m ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1210288

5. 800,000 Years of Abrupt Climate Variability

Author:
Barker, Stephen; Knorr, Gregor; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Parrenin, Frédéric; Putnam, Aaron E.; Skinner, Luke C.; Wolff, Eric; Ziegler, Martin
Source:
Science 2011 v.334 no.6054 pp. 347-351
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
climate; climate change; evolution; ice; models; China; Greenland
Abstract:
... We constructed an 800,000-year synthetic record of Greenland climate variability based on the thermal bipolar seesaw model. Our Greenland analog reproduces much of the variability seen in the Greenland ice cores over the past 100,000 years. The synthetic record shows strong similarity with the absolutely dated speleothem record from China, allowing us to place ice core records within an absolute t ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1203580

6. Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980

Author:
Lobell, David B.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Costa-Roberts, Justin
Source:
Science 2011 v.333 no.6042 pp. 616-620
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
carbon dioxide; climate; climate change; corn; crop production; crops; food availability; growing season; models; rice; soybeans; statistical analysis; temperature; weather; United States
Abstract:
... Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1204531

7. Global Trends in Wind Speed and Wave Height

Author:
Young, I.R.; Zieger, S.; Babanin, A.V.
Source:
Science 2011 v.332 no.6028 pp. 451-455
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
climate; climate change; databases; gravity; oceans; prediction; satellites; temperature; wind speed
Abstract:
... Studies of climate change typically consider measurements or predictions of temperature over extended periods of time. Climate, however, is much more than temperature. Over the oceans, changes in wind speed and the surface gravity waves generated by such winds play an important role. We used a 23-year database of calibrated and validated satellite altimeter measurements to investigate global chang ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1197219

8. The Response of Vegetation on the Andean Flank in Western Amazonia to Pleistocene Climate Change

Author:
Cárdenas, Macarena L.; Gosling, William D.; Sherlock, Sarah C.; Poole, Imogen; Pennington, R. Toby; Mothes, Patricia
Source:
Science 2011 v.331 no.6020 pp. 1055-1058
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
Podocarpus; biodiversity; climate; climate change; cooling; fossils; isotopes; montane forests; plant communities; pollen; radiometry; temperature; volcanic ash; wood; Amazonia; Andes region; Ecuador
Abstract:
... A reconstruction of past environmental change from Ecuador reveals the response of lower montane forest on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to glacial-interglacial global climate change. Radiometric dating of volcanic ash indicates that deposition occurred approximately 324,000 to 193,000 years ago during parts of Marine Isotope Stages 9, 7, and 6. Fossil pollen and wood preserved within organ ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1197947

9. 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

Author:
Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan
Source:
Science 2011 v.331 no.6017 pp. 578-582
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
anthropogenic activities; climate; climate change; humans; politics; risk; summer; temperature
Abstract:
... Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature ...
DOI:
10.1126/science.1197175