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algorithms; automation; climate; coasts; hydrodynamics; prediction; remote sensing; satellites; shorelines; temporal variation; time series analysis; water power; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Long-term observations of nearshore bar behaviour are a vital component of coastal monitoring, management, and prediction. Optical satellite remote sensing enables the possibility of such observations over large spatial areas, but its full potential remains unexploited. This study assessed alongshore variability in cross-shore nearshore bar behaviour on a wave-dominated multi-bar coast of the Curo ...
case studies; climate; groundwater; groundwater flow; probability; public water supply; saltwater intrusion; simulation models; supply balance; tourism; tourists; Baltic Sea; Sweden
Abstract:
... Fårö island, part of Region Gotland, Sweden. Despite its importance for proactive planning and management, understanding of how future climate and socioeconomic trends may interact to influence water supply and demand at sub-regional scale remains limited for the Nordic region. We aim to close this knowledge gap by developing a combined social and hydrological simulation model for Fårö island in t ...
Laura Uusitalo; Thorsten Blenckner; Riikka Puntila-Dodd; Annaliina Skyttä; Susanna Jernberg; Rudi Voss; Bärbel Müller-Karulis; Maciej T. Tomczak; Christian Möllmann; Heikki Peltonen
... Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network- based decision support model can be use ...
... PREMISE: Understanding the adaptive capacities of species over long timescales lies in examining the revived recent and millennia‐old resting spores buried in sediments. We show for the first time the revival, viability, and germination rate of resting spores of the diatom Chaetoceros deposited in sub‐seafloor sediments from three ages (recent: 0 to 80 years; ancient: ~1250 (Medieval Climate Anoma ...
... The Lithuanian onshore section of the south-eastern Baltic Sea region, or the so-called Lithuanian Maritime Region (LMR) – a belt several tens of kilometres wide along the Baltic Sea coast – is characterised by a complicated Quaternary structure and many of unsolved problems related to stratigraphy and palaeogeography. The inter-till lacustrine sediments widespread in the middle part of the Pleist ...
... Coastal dunes near the Baltic Sea are often stabilized by Scots pine forests and are characterized by a mild climate. These ecosystems are affected by water shortages and might be influenced by climate extremes. Considering future climate change, utilizing tree rings could help assess the role of climate extremes on coastal forest growth. We used superposed epoch analysis to study Scots pine respo ...
Betula pendula; climate; climate change; dormancy; growth rings; plasticity; summer; temperature; time series analysis; tree growth; vegetation; water shortages; weather; Baltic Sea; Baltic States; Finland; Germany
Abstract:
... Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) is a widespread species with a high potential for aiding sustainability and multifunctionality of European forests, as evidenced in Finland and the Baltics. However, under increasing relevance of climate change for tree growth, the meteorological sensitivity of the species is largely unknown, presuming it to be weather tolerant (low sensitivity). Considering loc ...
... Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios are increasingly used to study long-term change in food web structure and nutrient cycling. We retrospectively analyse elemental composition (C, N and P) and stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) in archived monitoring samples of two important taxa from the bottom of the food web; the filamentous ephemeral macroalgae Cladophora spp. and the blue mussel Mytilus edul ...
... Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size‐structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size‐based food web models have found that bottom‐up processes are important drivers of size‐structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less abou ...
Aphanizomenon; Dolichospermum; Nodularia; aquaculture; biogeography; biomass; climate; climate models; ecosystems; fluorescence; human health; microscopy; phycocyanin; salinity; satellites; species diversity; summer; temperature; temporal variation; time series analysis; tourism; toxins; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Dense blooms of filamentous cyanobacteria are recurrent phenomena in the Baltic Sea, with occasional negative effects on the surrounding ecosystem, as well as on tourism, human health, aquaculture, and fisheries. Establishing a climate service is therefore suggested; including multi-method observations of cyanobacteria biomass, biodiversity, and biogeography, in correspondence to biotic and abioti ...
... Crop wild relatives are valuable as a genetic resource to develop new crop cultivars, better adapted to increasing environmental heterogeneity and being able to give high quality yields in a changing climate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the tolerance of different accessions of a crop wild relative, Trifolium fragiferum L., from coastal habitats of the Baltic Sea to three abiotic factors ( ...
... Story maps offer the possibility to visualise scientific information and climate data in an accessible format and, as web-based tools, reach a large audience. However, the use of story maps in the context of climate services has not yet been widely explored or implemented. In this study we present a story map for communicating the potential impacts of flooding due to sea-level rise for the city of ...
... Wave heights in the Baltic Sea in the period 1992–2015 have mainly increased in the sea’s western parts. The linear trends in the winter wave heights exhibit a prominent meridional pattern. Using the technique of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) applied to multi-mission satellite altimetry data, we explain a large part of this increase with the Scandinavia pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation a ...
Diana Vaičiūtė; Martynas Bučas; Mariano Bresciani; Toma Dabulevičienė; Jonas Gintauskas; Jovita Mėžinė; Edvinas Tiškus; Georg Umgiesser; Julius Morkūnas; Francesca De Santi; Marco Bartoli
Russia; chlorophyll; climate; coastal water; eutrophication; hydrodynamics; hydrometeorology; piscivores; remote sensing; retrospective studies; river deltas; river flow; time series analysis; water temperature; wind; Baltic Sea; Lithuania
Abstract:
... A temporally and spatially detailed historical (1985–2018) analysis of cyanobacteria blooms was performed in the Curonian Lagoon (Lithuania, Russia), the largest coastal lagoon in the Baltic Sea. Satellite data allowed the mapping of cyanobacteria surface accumulations, so-called “scums”, and of chlorophyll-a concentration. The 34-year time series shows a tendency towards later occurrence (October ...
... The Baltic Sea is a heavily impacted ecosystem with multiple pressures acting simultaneously. In order to quantify ecosystem impacts of integrated climate change and eutrophication pressures under constant high fishing pressure, and to support decision-making and policies in generating environmental and economic sustainable systems, the Baltic Atlantis holistic and mechanistic ecosystem model was ...
air; air temperature; climate; climate change; coasts; dynamics; heat; mussels; oceans; recreation; sea ice; summer; surface water temperature; uncertainty; warm season; wind; Baltic Sea; Europe; North Sea
Abstract:
... The majority of regional climate change assessments for the Euro-CORDEX region is based on high resolution atmosphere models. These models use prescribed lower boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SST) from global ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs), that do not respond to changes simulated by the regional atmosphere model, thus lacking an important feedback to the atmosphere ...
... For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbid ...
Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; basins; carbon dioxide; climate; climate change; freeze-thaw cycles; nitrogen; nutrient retention; phosphorus; pollution load; rivers; sediments; snowpack; soil; stream flow; temperature; topographic slope; total nitrogen; total phosphorus; watersheds; winter; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... This study provides an in-depth analysis of the Nemunas River watershed, situated in the Baltic Sea basin, and possible future changes to the stream flow, hydrologic regime, sediment (SS), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) load from the river to the Curonian Lagoon under different climate change scenarios using high-resolution modelling. The sub-regions of the watershed, represented by ...
... Ocean acidification has the potential to negatively affect marine ecosystems by influencing the development and metabolism of key members of food webs. The garfish, Belone belone, is an ecologically important predator in European regional seas and it remains unknown how this species will be impacted by projected changes in climate. We artificially fertilized and reared garfish embryos until hatch ...
Kari Hyytiäinen; Barbara Bauer; Kerstin Bly Joyce; Eva Ehrnsten; Kari Eilola; Bo G. Gustafsson; H. E. Markus Meier; Alf Norkko; Sofia Saraiva; Maciej Tomczak; Marianne Zandersen
climate; demersal fish; issues and policy; marine ecosystems; pelagic fish; population ecology; primary productivity; recreation; social welfare; terrestrial ecosystems; water pollution; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human‐nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate resear ...
... Mean and extreme sea-level uncertainties, as well as uncertainty about future flood exposure, hinder the risk-based optimisation of flood protection investments. To deal with these uncertainties, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and methods for robust decision-making can be combined. This paper sequentially applies CBA, robust optimisation methods and info-gap analysis to find efficient and robust coas ...
climate; geophysics; models; research; rivers; runoff; salinity; sea level; time series analysis; water flow; water temperature; wind; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The sensitivity of the overturning circulation in the Baltic Sea is analyzed with respect to long‐term changes in atmospheric and hydrological conditions by using two state‐of‐the‐art ocean circulation models: RCO (Rossby Centre Ocean model) with a reference simulation and various sensitivity experiments as well as MOM (Modular Ocean Model). Historical reconstructions since 1850 lasting for >150 y ...
... The paper analyses the temporal and spatial variability of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in Poland in summer. Summer is the season with the highest intensity of tourism traffic that is why it is important to determine biometeorological conditions, especially in popular tourist destinations such as coastal, mountain and urban areas, in the times of climate changes. The analysis was bas ...
air pollution; air quality; case studies; climate; climate change; cost benefit analysis; cost effectiveness; ecotoxicology; environmental economics; environmental management; eutrophication; human health; issues and policy; life cycle assessment; marine environment; risk; social welfare; socioeconomic factors; willingness to pay; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Shipping is an activity responsible for a range of different pressures affecting the marine environment, air quality and human welfare. The methodology on how ship emissions impact air quality and human health are comparatively well established and used in cost-benefit analysis of policy proposals. However, the knowledge base is not the same for impacts on the marine environment and a coherent env ...
Populus trichocarpa; bioenergy; bud set; climate; genotype-environment interaction; phenology; provenance; research; stemwood; woody biomass; Baltic Sea; Baltic States; North America; Northern European region; Sweden
Abstract:
... The increased demand for wood to replace oil-based products with renewable products has lifted focus to the Baltic Sea region where the environment is favorable for woody biomass growth. The aim of this study was to estimate broad-sense heritabilities and genotype-by-environment (G×E) interactions in growth and phenology traits in six climatically different regions in Sweden and the Baltics. We te ...
... Local adaptation and plasticity of growth play important roles in the adaptability of trees to changing conditions. Under accelerating climatic changes, the adaptive capacity of metapopulations can be exceeded, implying a necessity for assisted gene flow to sustain the productivity of forests. Such management is knowledge intensive, and information on the responsiveness of metapopulations (provena ...
... According to a basic model, the formation of the coastal barriers in the southwestern Baltic can be divided into four evolutionary stages which are characterized by different rates of sea-level rise and varying relations between sediment supply and accommodation space. This model is tested using the example of a strandplain of the island Usedom, along with a local sea-level curve that reflects eve ...
... Due to globalization and climate warming, the introduction and establishment of alien species has increased in recent years. The Mediterranean Sea Region (MSR) has not been explored as a common donor of alien species to the Baltic Sea Region (BSR); however, in the context of global warming, the BSR could be more suitable for alien species from the MSR. We evaluated the alien species of Mediterrane ...
basins; climate; heat transfer; hydroacoustics; marine pollution; research projects; salinity; seawater; water temperature; Baltic Sea; North Sea
Abstract:
... The article presents the results from a research project investigating acoustic climate changes in the Gdansk Deep based on data extending from 1902 to 2019. This part of the southern Gotland Basin, is rarely discussed in the scientific literature. The speed of sound in the seawater is a function of temperature, salinity, and depth. In such shallow sea as Baltic Sea, the impact of depth is not sub ...
climate; coasts; data collection; littoral zone; scanners; time series analysis; topography; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Coastal storms are highly unpredictable phenomena, frequently changing their characteristics and directly linked to global climate changes. They result in an intensive erosion processes and, are now a serious concern for the communities inhabiting the littoral zones. However, owing to the technical difficulties in registering morphological changes on cliff coasts, most short-term monitoring system ...
... The climate variability and related sea-level changes during the Holocene are still under discussion, especially in a regional context. Very little information comes from the southern and south-eastern Baltic coast. The aim of the paper is to gain insight on the history of regional environmental changes, particularly sea-level and storminess, and their driving forces. The investigations were locat ...
... AIM: Global biodiversity loss has raised interest in understanding variation in diversity at different scales. In particular, studies conducted across large spatial gradients are crucial, because they can increase perspectives on how ecological patterns change relative to environmental factors and facilitate predictions of possible responses to environmental change. We explored the full extent of ...
... In the Western Baltic Sea, climate change is happening at much faster rate than in most other seas and organisms are additionally exposed to a steep and variable salinity gradient. Climate change has previously been shown to affect parasite transmission in other marine ecosystems, yet little is known about potential effects of warming and desalination on parasite–host interactions. In laboratory e ...
... Loss of habitat and changes in the spatial configuration of habitats are major drivers of species extinctions, but the responses to these drivers differ between organisms. To advance theory on how extinction risk from different types of habitat alteration relates to species‐specific traits, there is a need for studies of the long‐term extinction dynamic of individual species. The goal of this stud ...
Holocene epoch; archaeology; climate; coasts; human population; humans; latitude; paleoecology; population dynamics; population size; shorelines; social structure; Baltic Sea; Finland; Northern European region; Scandinavia
Abstract:
... High-quality palaeoenvironmental proxies and well-preserved archaeological record make Fennoscandia as an excellent area for the studies of long-term human-environment interaction in high-latitude settings. Here, we use palaeoenvironmental data and temporal frequency distributions of 754 shoreline dated hunter-gatherer sites to analyse the relationship between environmental changes and hunter-gath ...
Sampo Pihlainen; Marianne Zandersen; Kari Hyytiäinen; Hans Estrup Andersen; Alena Bartosova; Bo Gustafsson; Mohamed Jabloun; Michelle McCrackin; H.E. Markus Meier; Jørgen E. Olesen; Sofia Saraiva; Dennis Swaney; Hans Thodsen
climate; environment; land use change; nitrogen; phosphorus; society; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detail ...
Lepus europaeus; Nyctereutes procyonoides; Odocoileus virginianus; climate; coasts; computer software; data collection; forests; geographic information systems; geographical distribution; habitats; human diseases; human population; humans; islands; models; people; population density; primary sector; public health; regression analysis; remote sensing; risk; spatial data; tick-borne encephalitis; ticks; Baltic Sea; Finland; Lapland
Abstract:
... The numbers of reported human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases in Europe have increased in several endemic regions (including Finland) in recent decades, indicative of an increasing threat to public health. As such, it is important to identify the regions at risk and the most influential factors associated with TBE distributions, particularly in understudied regions. This study aimed to identif ...
agricultural land; climate; coastal water; eutrophication; industrial wastewater; peatlands; pollution load; rivers; temperature; total nitrogen; total phosphorus; weather; Baltic Sea; Finland
Abstract:
... To tackle the symptoms of eutrophication in the open Baltic Sea and Finnish coastal waters, Finland has agreed to reduce both total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) inputs. Due to large investments in treatment of municipal and industrial wastewaters, TP loads started to decrease already in the mid-1970s and the respective TN loads in the mid-1990s. During the last two decades, much effort ...
... The post‐glacial Baltic Sea has experienced extreme changes that are archived today in the deep sediments. IODP Expedition 347 retrieved cores down to 100 m depth and studied the climate history and the deep biosphere. We here review the biogeochemical and microbiological highlights and integrate these with other studies from the Baltic seabed. Cell numbers, endospore abundance and organic matter ...
... In Europe, numerous Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) provenance trials have been established and evaluated at a juvenile age. Still, information about the adaptation potential and long-term fitness of transferred seedlots in the Baltic Sea region is lacking. The aim of the study was to evaluate the adaptation capacity of provenances and assess the patterns of their long-term reaction to envir ...
... A very simple algorithm with which to assess cloudiness over the Baltic Sea has been developed. The algorithm involves analysis of cloud longwave emissivity, supplemented with available information on shortwave emissions. The simple classification method is based on the split-window technique and compares a signal recorded in the neighbouring spectral bands with results of cloud-free atmosphere mo ...
... The Baltic Sea is a shallow, semi-enclosed brackish sea suffering like many other coastal seas from eutrophication caused by human impact. Hence, nutrient load abatement strategies are intensively discussed. With the help of a high-resolution, coupled physical-biogeochemical circulation model we investigate the combined impact of changing nutrient loads from land and changing climate during the 21 ...
Grete E. Dinesen; Stefan Neuenfeldt; Alexandros Kokkalis; Andreas Lehmann; Josefine Egekvist; Kasper Kristensen; Peter Munk; Karin Hüssy; Josianne G. Støttrup
Gadus morhua; climate; coastal water; coasts; economic valuation; environmental factors; fisheries; habitats; hydrodynamics; information storage; interviews; mathematical models; monitoring; seawater; shrinkage; socioeconomics; surveys; sustainable fisheries; water temperature; Baltic Sea; Denmark
Abstract:
... This study applied the Systems Approach Framework (SAF) to address the issue of declining Atlantic cod fishery in coastal areas. Interviews of 58 fishers from 26 harbours and meetings with national fisheries organisations and managers revealed the perception of an offshore movement of coastal cod. Numerical modelling based on fishing survey data did not substantiate these perceptions in the data-p ...
Ingrid Kröncke; Hermann Neumann; Joachim W. Dippner; Sally Holbrook; Thomas Lamy; Robert Miller; Bachisio Mario Padedda; Silvia Pulina; Daniel C. Reed; Marko Reinikainen; Cecilia T. Satta; Nicola Sechi; Thomas Soltwedel; Sanna Suikkanen; Antonella Lugliè
... Data from five sites of the International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network in the North-Eastern Pacific, Western Arctic Ocean, Northern Baltic Sea, South-Eastern North Sea and in the Western Mediterranean Sea were analyzed by dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to trace common multi-year trends in abundance and composition of phytoplankton, benthic fauna and temperate reef fish. Multiannual ...
... In the Baltic Sea hypoxia has been increased considerably since the first oxygen measurements became available in 1898. In 2016 the annual maximum extent of hypoxia covered an area of the sea bottom of about 70,000 km², comparable with the size of Ireland, whereas 150 years ago hypoxia was presumably not existent or at least very small. The general view is that the increase in hypoxia was caused b ...
... We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical–biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species ...
... The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dyn ...
Clupea harengus; climate; climate change; docosahexaenoic acid; ecosystems; eicosapentaenoic acid; energy content; energy flow; environmental factors; fatty acid composition; herring; lipid content; models; muscles; physiology; population density; seawater; spawning; summer; water salinity; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Global climate change can affect the energy content of fish by altering their lipid physiology and consumption. We investigated the effects of different environmental stressors on the lipid content of the Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) from spawning ground samples that were collected annually in the northern Baltic Sea. During 1987–2014, the average lipid content of herring muscle decrea ...
... Climate change, energy use and food security are the main challenges that our society is facing nowadays. Biofuels and feedstock from microalgae can be part of the solution if high and continuous production is to be ensured. This could be attained in year‐round, low cost, outdoor cultivation systems using strains that are not only champion producers of desired compounds but also have robust growth ...
Donatas Kaminskas; Eugenija Rudnickaitė; Giedrė Vaikutienė; Albertas Bitinas; Alma Grigienė; Ilya V. Buynevich; Aldona Damušytė; Donatas Pupienis; Petras Šinkūnas
... The reconstruction of the development of the northern Curonian Lagoon, Lithuania, during the Holocene is based on a wide suite of studies: pollen, diatom and carbonate analyses, measurements of magnetic susceptibility, as well as geochemical data. Recently published data from the Nida-VI borehole show that the age of lacustrine and lagoonal sand spans from Boreal to Sub-Atlantic. Diatom analyses r ...
Jørgen E. Olesen; Christen D. Børgesen; Fatemeh Hashemi; Mohamed Jabloun; Dominika Bar-Michalczyk; Przemyslaw Wachniew; Anna J. Zurek; Alena Bartosova; Thomas Bosshard; Anne L. Hansen; Jens C. Refsgaard
climate; climate change; climate models; hydrologic models; land use; leaching; nitrates; nitrogen; nutrients; pollution load; surface water; water pollution; water quality; watersheds; Baltic Sea; Denmark; Poland
Abstract:
... Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two Baltic Sea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and MIKE SHE or MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transp ...
... Coastal predatory fish are of key importance for the provisioning of ecosystem services in the Baltic Sea. Worldwide, however, there has been a general and sharp decline in predatory fish populations, in turn threatening the viability and function of marine ecosystems. On the basis of the literature, the past (data until the 2000s) and current (data until early and mid 2010s) trends in abundance o ...
Marianne Zandersen; Kari Hyytiäinen; H. E. Markus Meier; Maciej T. Tomczak; Barbara Bauer; Päivi E. Haapasaari; Jørgen Eivind Olesen; Bo G. Gustafsson; Jens Christian Refsgaard; Erik Fridell; Sampo Pihlainen; Martin D. A. Le Tissier; Anna-Kaisa Kosenius; Detlef P. Van Vuuren
atmospheric deposition; climate; climate change; ecosystems; fisheries; human development; land use change; pollution; pollution control; shipping; socioeconomics; wastewater treatment; Baltic Sea; Northern European region
Abstract:
... Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers bo ...
... Stable isotopes probing is among the most used methods applied in the studies of paleoenvironment. Isotope signatures of sediments are influenced by different environmental conditions such as climate, salinity, and plant coverage at the time those sediments were deposited, representing an inestimable value for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and interpretation. In this study the carbon stable is ...
climate; cost effectiveness; crop production; energy crops; environmental markets; issues and policy; models; nitrogen; pollutants; pollution control; prices; wetlands; Baltic Sea; Estonia; Latvia; Poland; Russia
Abstract:
... In a stacking system abatement measures with simultaneous effects on climate and water targets, such as wetland construction and cultivation of energy crops, are credited for the abatement of multiple pollutants. In this study we calculated and compared the abatement costs of achieving multiple environmental targets with and without stacking under different policy regimes (emissions trading, charg ...
climate; fire history; forest dynamics; forest fires; forests; humans; landscapes; national parks; prescribed burning; Baltic Sea; Latvia
Abstract:
... Fire has been shown to shape successional pathways and dynamics of forest vegetation. However, its role in European hemiboreal forests remains poorly understood. Here we provide the first annually resolved reconstruction of fire history from the Eastern Baltic Sea region, developed in the pine-dominated landscape of Slitere National Park (SNP), northwestern Latvia, over the last 250 years. Our res ...
... Seal populations are recovering in many regions around the world and, consequently, they are increasingly interacting with fisheries. We used an Ecopath with Ecosim model for the offshore Central Baltic Sea to investigate the interactions between the changes in fish stocks and grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) population under different fishing and environmental scenarios for the twenty-first century ...
European Union; climate; energy policy; infrastructure; markets; risk factors; wind farms; wind power; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Offshore wind power development is expected to play an important role in meeting the EU climate targets. To integrate offshore wind power, advanced offshore infrastructures such as meshed grids are suggested to optimise the grid development. Meshed offshore grids refer to integrated offshore infrastructure where offshore wind power hubs are interconnected to several countries as opposed to radial ...
... The Baltic Sea is currently the largest marine hypoxic (O2<2mgL⁻¹) ‘dead zone’ following excessive nutrient input from anthropogenic activities over the past century. Widespread hypoxia has previously developed in the Baltic Sea during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 8–4ka before present; BP) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 1.4–0.7ka BP). Here we study the mechanisms that contributed to ...
... AIM: The Baltic Sea forms a unique regional sea with its salinity gradient ranging from marine to nearly freshwater conditions. It is one of the most environmentally impacted brackish seas worldwide, and the low biodiversity makes it particularly sensitive to anthropogenic pressures including climate change. We applied a novel combination of models to predict the fate of one of the dominant founda ...
... The paper focuses on bioclimatic conditions in the southern part of the Baltic coast based on universal thermal climate index values. Taking into consideration the observational data from coastline stations as well as reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (sea level pressure and the 500 hPa geopotential height), the autho ...
... Metabarcoding is a method that combines high-throughput DNA sequencing and DNA-based identification. Previously, this method has been successfully used to target spatial variation of eukaryote communities in marine sediments, however, the temporal changes in these communities remain understudied. Here, we follow the temporal changes of the eukaryote communities in Baltic Sea surface sediments coll ...
Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; basins; climate; climate change; forests; issues and policy; land use change; reproduction; rivers; runoff; water management; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Combined and separate impact of climate and land use change on the future river runoff was assessed in the eastern Baltic Sea region by using the SWAT (The Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. SWAT was applied to assess how plausible changes in climate and land use may affect the river hydrology by the end of the century. The model was calibrated and validated for a period from 1970 ...
climate; climate change; greenhouse gas emissions; mixing; models; temperature profiles; wind; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... An ocean model covering the Baltic Sea area is forced by several climate scenarios for a period extending from 1961 to 2100. The Baltic Sea overturning circulation is then analyzed. The analysis shows that this circulation decreases between the end of the 20th century and the end of the 21st century, and that the decrease is amplified in the case of the strongest greenhouse gas emission scenarios, ...
... External oceanographic conditions rather than anthropogenic influence are shown to cause the 3-dimensional distribution of anthropogenic microparticles (MP, 0.5–5mm) within the body of sandy beaches of a non-tidal sea with strong wind/wave climate and seasonal sea level variations (the Baltic Sea). A patchy structure is confirmed in all three dimensions, with background concentrations of several t ...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; climate; equations; geophysics; oceans; research; salinity; seawater; temperature; thermodynamics; uncertainty; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... In most applications, with seawater conductivity, temperature, and pressure data measured in situ by various observation instruments e.g., Conductivity‐Temperature‐Depth instruments (CTD), the density which has strong ties to ocean dynamics and so on is computed according to equations of state for seawater. This paper, based on density computational formulae in the Thermodynamic Equation of Seawat ...
... Changes in global climate patterns are affecting marine ecosystems, challenging species’ environmental tolerances, and driving shifts in their distributions. In the Baltic Sea, a brackish water body with low biodiversity, the isopod Idotea balthica is a key herbivore species that has a strong top–down effect on habitat-forming macrophytes. Our aim is to understand how the predicted future combinat ...
climate; climate change; cost effectiveness; economic impact; greenhouse gas emissions; greenhouse gases; issues and policy; models; pollution load; wastewater; water quality; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... This paper explores the scope for simultaneously managing nutrient abatement and climate change mitigation in the Baltic Sea (BS) region through the implementation of a selection of measures. The analysis is undertaken using a cost-minimisation model for the entire BS region, the BALTCOST model. In the present research, the model has been extended to include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effects, ...
... A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharg ...
air flow; climate; climate models; evaporation; statistics; summer; surface water temperature; wind; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea; Central European region; North Sea
Abstract:
... This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, nam ...
Clupea harengus; Gadus morhua; Sprattus sprattus; aquatic food webs; biocenosis; biomass; climate; eutrophication; forage fish; herring; hydrology; marine environment; models; piscivores; predatory fish; temporal variation; time series analysis; Baltic Sea; Europe
Abstract:
... Food-web indicators for marine management are required to describe the functioning and structure of marine food-webs. In Europe, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), intended to lead to a ‘good environmental status’ of the marine waters, requires indicators of the status of the marine environment that also respond to manageable anthropogenic pressures. Identifying such relationships to ...
Oncorhynchus mykiss; byproducts; canola oil; climate; consumer behavior; emissions; energy use and consumption; environmental impact; eutrophication; farmed fish; feed composition; feed formulation; filleting; fish culture; fish feeds; fish fillets; fish meal; fish oils; fish production; hatcheries; herring; humans; life cycle assessment; lipid content; nitrogen; nutrients; oceans; packaging; people; phosphorus; raw materials; seafoods; uncertainty; wild fish; Baltic Sea; Finland
Abstract:
... This study presents environmental impacts of rainbow trout production in Finland, when different raw materials for feed are used. The scenarios under consideration in this study are the present scenario, feed composition in 2009 and scenarios where Baltic herring is used as feed raw material resulting in nutrient circulation in the Baltic Sea area. The system boundaries included production of fish ...
... Climate change is acknowledged to affect directly macroalgal performance but its indirect effect through changes in algal interaction with herbivores remains poorly understood. To study effects of climate change on a macroalga–herbivore interaction, we exposed three range-margin Baltic Sea populations of Fucus (60°N 39°E, 61°N 21°E, 62°N 21°E) in September 2015 to current (15.1 °C; 5.2 PSU) and pr ...
Hans Thodsen; Csilla Farkas; Jaroslaw Chormanski; Dennis Trolle; Gitte Blicher-Mathiesen; Ruth Grant; Alexander Engebretsen; Ignacy Kardel; Hans Estrup Andersen
Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; agricultural land; climate; fertilizer application; land use; manure spreading; mineral fertilizers; nitric oxide; pollution load; watersheds; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The main environmental stressor of the Baltic Sea is elevated riverine nutrient loads, mainly originating from diffuse agricultural sources. Agricultural practices, intensities, and nutrient losses vary across the Baltic Sea drainage basin (1.75 × 106 km2, 14 countries and 85 million inhabitants). Six “Soil and Water Assessment Tool” (SWAT) models were set up for catchments representing the major ...
... The impact of environmental change and anthropogenic stressors on coastal marine systems will strongly depend on changes in the magnitude and composition of organic matter exported from the water column to the seafloor. Knowledge of vertical export in the Baltic Sea is synthesised to illustrate how organic matter deposition will respond to climate warming, climate-related changes in freshwater run ...
... Climate change impact on future European large-scale wind energy resource under the latest IPCC CMIP5 future climate projections were analysed. After assessing the models that best reproduce contemporary near-surface wind speeds over Europe, their data was used to assess future changes in the wind energetic resource in Europe.Using a multi-model ensemble composed by the models that showed the best ...
... Extreme Event Attribution has raised increasing attention in climate science in the last years. It means to judge the extent to which certain weather-related extreme events have changed due to human influences on climate with probabilistic statements. Extreme Event Attribution is often anticipated to spur more than just scientific ambition. It is able to provide answers to a commonly asked questio ...
... In contrast to clear stimulatory effects of rising temperature, recent studies of the effects of CO₂ on planktonic bacteria have reported conflicting results. To better understand the potential impact of predicted climate scenarios on the development and performance of bacterial communities, we performed bifactorial mesocosm experiments (pCO₂ and temperature) with Baltic Sea water, during a diatom ...
bacteria; biofilm; biogeochemistry; carbon dioxide; climate; community structure; gases; heat; microbial biomass; temporal variation; Baltic Sea; South China Sea
Abstract:
... Because the sea surface controls various interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, it has a profound function for marine biogeochemistry and climate regulation. The sea surface is the gateway for the exchange of climate-relevant gases, heat and particles. Thus, in order to determine how the ocean and the atmosphere interact and respond to environmental changes on a global scale, the chara ...
... Coastal vegetation communities are important for primary production, biodiversity, coastal protection, carbon and nutrient cycling which, in combination with their sensitivity to eutrophication, render them potential indicators of environmental status for environmental policies like the EU Water and Marine Strategy Framework Directives. We evaluated one potential indicator for coastal vegetation, ...
... Selection of suitable genotypes from diverse seed banks may help phytoplankton populations to cope with environmental changes. This study examines whether the high genotypic diversity found in the Baltic cyst pool of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii is coupled to phenotypic variability that could aid short‐term adaptation. Growth rates, cellular toxicities and bioluminescence of 34 ...
... Although bottom water hypoxia (O₂ < 2 mg L⁻¹) is presently widespread in the Baltic Sea coastal zone, there is a lack of insight into past changes in bottom water oxygen in these areas on timescales of millennia, and the possible driving factors. Here, we present a sediment-based environmental reconstruction of surface water productivity, salinity and bottom water oxygen for the past 5400 years at ...
Hans Estrup Andersen; Gitte Blicher-Mathiesen; Hans Thodsen; Peter Mejlhede Andersen; Søren E. Larsen; Per Stålnacke; Christoph Humborg; Carl-Magnus Mörth; Erik Smedberg
agricultural management; climate; data collection; farms; groundwater; laws and regulations; models; nitrogen; rhizosphere; statistics; surface water; watersheds; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Agricultural management practices are among the major drivers of agricultural nitrogen (N) loss. Legislation and management incentives for measures to mitigate N loss should eventually be carried out at the individual farm level. Consequently, an appropriate scale to simulate N loss from a scientific perspective should be at the farm scale. A data set of more than 4000 agricultural fields with com ...
... Long-term and interannual changes in composition of submerged vegetation, diaspore reservoir and germination were investigated in the lagoon system Westrügensche Boddenkette, Baltic Sea, north-east Germany. Comparison with a survey from 1932, showed vegetation cover is similar to the past, maintaining high cover to depths of 2.8 m despite a period of eutrophication between about 1960 and 1990. Spe ...
climate; species diversity; Baltic Sea; Denmark; Sweden
Abstract:
... It is a trend in loricate choanoflagellate research that our knowledge of species diversity is insufficient in terms of understanding annual successional changes at any specific locality, whereas there is a fairly decent coverage worldwide − at least in more coastal realms − in terms of biodiversity within more narrowly defined time windows. To help address this knowledge gap, we have compiled all ...
Katharina Fietz; Anders Galatius; Jonas Teilmann; Rune Dietz; Anne Kristine Frie; Anastasia Klimova; Per J. Palsbøll; Lasse F. Jensen; Jeff A. Graves; Joseph I. Hoffman; Morten Tange Olsen
anthropogenic activities; breeding sites; climate; extinction; geographical distribution; seals; Baltic Sea; North Sea; Northern European region
Abstract:
... Identifying the processes that drive changes in the abundance and distribution of natural populations is a central theme in ecology and evolution. Many species of marine mammals have experienced dramatic changes in abundance and distribution due to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts. However, thanks to conservation efforts, some of these species have shown remarkable population recove ...
climate; data collection; databases; publications; temperature; time series analysis; Baltic Sea; Estonia
Abstract:
... The high-resolution reanalysis data-base BaltAn65+ covers the period of 1965–2005. Here, this dataset is used to derive essential climate parameters for the Baltic Sea region and Estonia. In particular, monthly mean temperature and total precipitation are calculated and a trend analysis is performed to analyze the temporal evolution of these climatological parameters during the reanalysis period. ...
Pinus sylvestris; climate; community structure; coniferous forests; lichens; multidimensional scaling; species diversity; temperature; Baltic Sea; Poland; Slovakia
Abstract:
... We investigated patterns in community composition in Central-European lichen-rich pine forests along a macroclimatic gradient, using two plot sizes. Diversity of lichens, especially the number of boreal and subatlantic taxa per plot increased from southern Slovakia to northern Poland (Baltic Sea). The ecological indicator value for continentality was highest in two inland regions which were charac ...
... We calculate values of forest carbon sequestration and nutrient recycling applying the replacement cost method. The value is then determined as the savings in costs by the replacement of more expensive abatement measures with these ecosystem services in cost-effective climate and nutrient programs. To this end, a dynamic optimization model is constructed, which accounts for uncertainty in sequestr ...
... The long term management plan for cod in the eastern Baltic Sea was introduced in 2007 to ensure the full reproductive capacity of cod and an economically viable fishing industry. If these goals are to be fulfilled under changing environmental conditions, a readjustment of the current management plan may be needed. Therefore, this paper investigates the economic impacts of managing the cod, sprat ...
Ilppo Vuorinen; Jari Hänninen; Marjut Rajasilta; Päivi Laine; Jan Eklund; Federico Montesino-Pouzols; Francesco Corona; Karin Junker; H.E.Markus Meier; Joachim W. Dippner
... Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to mode ...
... Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes eith ...
... The ringed seal (Pusa hispida) is an early immigrant in the Baltic Basin and has since its arrival experienced substantial changes in the climate, salinity and productivity of the Basin. In this paper, we discuss the dispersal and distribution of the ringed seal during different stages of the Baltic Sea in relation to past and ongoing environmental changes. Subfossil ringed seal remains around the ...
... The major tasks of the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) are to simulate the water and energy cycles of the Baltic Sea catchment and to identify important processes, which are relevant to the climate in the Baltic region. A fully coupled regional climate model system for the Baltic Sea region, called BALTIMOS, was developed in the framework of the German climate research program DEKLIM by linking exi ...
Guillem Chust; J. Icarus Allen; Laurent Bopp; Corinna Schrum; Jason Holt; Kostas Tsiaras; Marco Zavatarelli; Marina Chifflet; Heather Cannaby; Isabelle Dadou; Ute Daewel; Sarah L. Wakelin; Eric Machu; Dhanya Pushpadas; Momme Butenschon; Yuri Artioli; George Petihakis; Chris Smith; Veronique Garçon; Katerina Goubanova; Briac Le Vu; Bettina A. Fach; Baris Salihoglu; Emanuela Clementi; Xabier Irigoien
biomass; carbon; climate; ecophysiology; ecosystems; food webs; global warming; models; oceans; phytoplankton; primary productivity; surface temperature; zooplankton; Adriatic Sea; Aegean Sea; Antarctic region; Arctic region; Baltic Sea; Barents Sea; Bay of Biscay; Black Sea; North Sea
Abstract:
... Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or mor ...
Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; climate; climate change; coasts; constructed wetlands; crop yield; eutrophication; intensive farming; land cover; land use change; pollution load; rivers; spring; water quality; watersheds; winter; Baltic Sea; Poland
Abstract:
... Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northe ...
European Union; agricultural management; atmospheric precipitation; climate; climate change; fungicides; greenhouse gas emissions; greenhouse gases; growing season; monitoring; nitrates; nitrogen; nutrients; runoff; tillage; water quality; watersheds; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Climatic changes will influence the possibilities for agricultural production (e.g. longer growing season), agricultural management practices (e.g. changes in tillage, fertilization, increased use of fungicides) and runoff conditions, and thereby the losses of nutrients from agricultural fields to the environment. Nitrogen (N) is of particular interest in the Baltic Sea region because of its adver ...
... Observational data and simulations of the regional climate system Baltic integrated model system (BALTIMOS) were used to study precipitation in the Baltic Sea and its drainage basin with a special focus on the diurnal cycle. The study includes a general evaluation of BALTIMOS precipitation, showing that BALTIMOS has too many light rain events causing an overestimation of the total annual precipita ...
... Deoxygenation is a global problem in coastal and open regions of the ocean, and has led to expanding areas of oxygen minimum zones and coastal hypoxia. The recent expansion of hypoxia in coastal ecosystems has been primarily attributed to global warming and enhanced nutrient input from land and atmosphere. The largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic area in the world is the Baltic Sea, where the ...
biogeography; climate; data collection; grasslands; habitats; islands; ordination techniques; phylogeny; plant communities; soil depth; species diversity; temperature; Baltic Sea; Estonia; Russia; Sweden
Abstract:
... We used an extensive dataset (1220 vegetation plots of 1m2) to study vegetation gradients and fine-scale plant diversity in dry calcareous grasslands (including alvar grasslands) in the Baltic Sea region. The study area covers the entire European distributional range of alvar habitats: Sweden (Öland, Gotland, Götaland), Estonia (Saaremaa, Hiiumaa, north Estonia, west Estonia), and western Russia ( ...