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... Deposition of atmospheric particulates is a major pathway for transporting materials from land to the ocean, with important implications for climate and nutrient cycling in the ocean. Here, we report the results of year-round measurements of particulate organic carbon (POC) and black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosols collected on Tuoji Island in the coastal Bohai-Yellow Sea of China (2019–2020) ...
P. H. Templer; J. L. Harrison; F. Pilotto; A. Flores-Díaz; P. Haase; W. H. McDowell; R. Sharif; H. Shibata; D. Blankman; A. Avila; U. Baatar; H. R. Bogena; I. Bourgeois; J. Campbell; T. Dirnböck; W. K. Dodds; M. Hauken; I. Kokorite; K. Lajtha; I.-L. Lai; H. Laudon; T. C. Lin; S. R. M. Lins; H. Meesenburg; P. Pinho; A. Robison; M. Rogora; B. Scheler; P. Schleppi; R. Sommaruga; T. Staszewski; M. Taka
air temperature; ammonium; atmospheric deposition; biogeochemistry; climate; forests; grasslands; nitrates; nitrogen; streams; time series analysis; East Asia; Europe; North America
Abstract:
... Previous studies have evaluated how changes in atmospheric nitrogen (N) inputs and climate affect stream N concentrations and fluxes, but none have synthesized data from sites around the globe. We identified variables controlling stream inorganic N concentrations and fluxes, and how they have changed, by synthesizing 20 time series ranging from 5 to 51 years of data collected from forest and grass ...
aesthetics; air; atmospheric deposition; carbon sequestration; chemical pollutants; climate; climate change; cost effectiveness; ecosystems; environmental impact; green infrastructure; human health; land; lawns and turf; phytoremediation; risk; roads; soil management; soil pollution; soil quality; traffic; urban soils; urbanization; water flow; weather
Abstract:
... Urban areas are facing a range of environmental challenges including air, water and soil pollution as a result of industrial, domestic and traffic emissions. In addition, global climate change is likely to aggravate certain urban problems and disturb the urban ecology by increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. In the context of urbanization growth and the consequent impact ...
... Antibiotic resistance has become a major Global Health concern and a better understanding on the global spread mechanisms of antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and intercontinental ARB exchange is needed. We measured atmospheric depositions of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) by quantitative (q)PCR in rain/snow collected fortnightly along 4 y. at a remote high mountain LTER (Long-Term Ecologica ...
Helena Vallicrosa; Jordi Sardans; Joan Maspons; Paolo Zuccarini; Marcos Fernández‐Martínez; Marijn Bauters; Daniel S. Goll; Philippe Ciais; Michael Obersteiner; Ivan A. Janssens; Josep Peñuelas
... Consistent information on the current elemental composition of vegetation at global scale and the variables that determine it is lacking. To fill this gap, we gathered a total of 30 912 georeferenced records on woody plants foliar concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) from published databases, and produced global maps of foliar N, P and K concentrations for woody plants ...
Pleurozium schreberi; agricultural industry; anthropogenic activities; atmospheric deposition; chemistry; climate; environmental impact; environmental monitoring; heavy metals; mosses and liverworts; multivariate analysis; neutron activation analysis; pollution; summer; Azerbaijan; Caucasus region
Abstract:
... The results of this investigation show that Azerbaijan industries and agricultural sector provide considerable anthropogenic impact on the environment of Caucasus. The use of moss biomonitoring technique and neutron activation analysis (NAA) is a first attempt to study heavy metal atmospheric deposition in Azerbaijan, a country different relief and climate. The study was undertaken in the summer o ...
... Anthropogenic changes to nitrogen cycling have dramatically altered ecosystems across the globe, particularly in coastal estuaries where nitrogen limits primary production. The impacts of nitrogen pollution are especially evident in Narragansett Bay, RI, where eutrophication in the urbanized Providence River Estuary persists despite a > 50% decrease in wastewater nitrogen loading over the past two ...
... Cryoconite holes host active microbial communities despite their extreme physical conditions. In the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, these perennially cold, mini-ecosystems form ice lids that can persist for many years thereby isolating the cryoconite from nutrient and carbon inputs. Despite much recent work on cryoconite holes in Antarctica, little is known about nutrient dynamics and limitati ...
Clean Air Act; air; atmospheric deposition; base saturation; climate; climate change; decision making; ecological function; forest ecosystems; forest health; forest soils; hardwood; humans; models; nitrates; nitrogen; soil pollution; sulfur; temperature; understory; vegetation; water; Northeastern United States
Abstract:
... Human activities have dramatically increased nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, altering forest ecosystem function and structure. Anticipating how changes in deposition and climate impact forests can inform decisions regarding these environmental stressors. Here, we used a dynamic soil-vegetation model (ForSAFE-Veg) to simulate responses to future scenarios of atmospheric deposition and clima ...
atmospheric deposition; botanical composition; climate; dunes; nestedness; plant nutrition; soil; water table; United Kingdom
Abstract:
... AIM: To quantify the responses of alpha and beta diversity to multivariate gradients, incorporating variation in environmental and management variability in coastal dune slacks. LOCATION: United Kingdom dune slacks. METHODS: Plant community composition, plant nutrient status and soil characteristics were measured for 164 quadrats in 41 dune slacks across 12 coastal sand dune systems. Data were col ...
Audrey Campeau; Karin Eklöf; Anne L. Soerensen; Staffan Åkerblom; Shengliu Yuan; Holger Hintelmann; Magdalena Bieroza; Stephan Köhler; Christian Zdanowicz
... The Arctic environment harbors a complex mosaic of mercury (Hg) and carbon (C) reservoirs, some of which are rapidly destabilizing in response to climate warming. The sources of riverine Hg across the Mackenzie River basin (MRB) are uncertain, which leads to a poor understanding of potential future release. Measurements of dissolved and particulate mercury (DHg, PHg) and carbon (DOC, POC) concentr ...
... Long‐term ecosystem studies are valuable for understanding integrated ecosystem response to global changes in atmospheric deposition and climate. We examined trends for a 35‐year period (1982/83–2017/18) in concentrations of a range of solutes in precipitation and stream water from nine headwater catchments spanning elevation and surficial geology gradients at the Turkey Lakes watershed (TLW) in n ...
... We used a flux deconstruction approach on peat and sediment archives of four bogs and five lakes from two subarctic taiga ecoregions of the Northwest Territories (Canada) to distinguish the atmospheric and catchment-based responses to changing metal pollution emissions over the last 2000 years. Bogs tracked the atmospheric signal, whereas lake sediments provided a mixed atmospheric and catchment-b ...
... Mountains are among the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and one of the most evident signs of climate-related effect is the continuous net loss of ice from the cryosphere. Several studies showed that meltwater from glaciated and perennially frozen areas can profoundly affect alpine aquatic ecosystems. Here, we present the impressive temporal increase in solutes in Lake Leit, a mountain ...
... The lateral flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to inland waters and ultimately to the ocean represents a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. To estimate the DOC flux, we developed an empirical terrestrial-aquatic DOC fluxes model (TAF-DOC). TAF-DOC incorporates various environmental factors (e.g., meteorology, sulfur, and nitrogen deposition) that to-date have not been ...
air temperature; atmospheric deposition; autocorrelation; biosphere; carbon sequestration; climate; dissolved organic carbon; geophysics; land cover; landscapes; nitrogen; observational studies; research; seasonal variation; sulfur; time series analysis; watersheds
Abstract:
... The export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from a watershed is a key component of the terrestrial biosphere carbon cycle. There is a need to improve our understanding of how and by how much various environmental factors are driving the temporal patterns of DOC export in order to accurately model and evaluate terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes. In this synthesis, we compiled observational data ...
acidification; atmospheric deposition; climate; color; humans; land use; time series analysis; Northeastern United States
Abstract:
... Multiple studies have reported widespread browning of Northern Hemisphere lakes. Most examples are from boreal lakes that have experienced limited human influence, and browning has alternatively been attributed to changes in atmospheric deposition, climate, and land use. To determine the extent and possible causes of browning across a more geographically diverse region, we examined watercolor and ...
atmospheric deposition; climate; forest ecosystems; forest habitats; forests; lichens; nitrogen; sulfur; Western United States
Abstract:
... Critical loads are thresholds of atmospheric deposition below which harmful ecological effects do not occur. Because lichens are sensitive to atmospheric deposition, lichen-based critical loads can foreshadow changes of other forest processes. Here, we derive critical loads of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition for continental US and coastal Alaskan forests, based on nationally consistent lich ...
acidification; air temperature; atmospheric deposition; case studies; chlorides; climate; climate change; community structure; data collection; decline; environment; humans; hydrochemistry; lakes; land use; models; sulfates; surface area; weather; winter; zooplankton; Northeastern United States
Abstract:
... Mountain ponds in the northeastern US have undergone acidification and subsequent recovery due to changes in atmospheric deposition, and also reflect physical and biological responses to climate change. These ponds are distinct from other lakes and ponds in the region as they are higher in elevation, relatively small, and have little direct impact from human land use in their watersheds. They are ...
... In this review, global change processes have been linked to polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in Canada and a first national budget of sources and sinks has been derived. Sources are dominated by wildfire emissions that affect western and northern regions of Canada disproportionately due to the location of Pacific and boreal forests and the direction of prevailing winds. Wildfire emissions are ...
J.P. Corella; M.J. Sierra; A. Garralón; R. Millán; J. Rodríguez-Alonso; M.P. Mata; A. Vicente de Vera; A. Moreno; P. González-Sampériz; B. Duval; D. Amouroux; P. Vivez; C.A. Cuevas; J.A. Adame; B. Wilhelm; A. Saiz-Lopez; B.L. Valero-Garcés
... We have analyzed potential harmful trace elements (PHTE; Pb, Hg, Zn, As and Cu) on sediment cores retrieved from lake Marboré (LM) (2612 m a.s.l, 42°41′N; 0° 2′E). PHTE variability allowed us to reconstruct the timing and magnitude of trace metal pollutants fluxes over the last 3000 years in the Central Pyrenees. A statistical treatment of the dataset (PCA) enabled us to discern the depositional p ...
Masamichi Takahashi; Zhaozhong Feng; Tatyana A. Mikhailova; Olga V. Kalugina; Olga V. Shergina; Larisa V. Afanasieva; Roland Kueh Jui Heng; Nik Muhamad Abd Majid; Hiroyuki Sase
Japan; Siberia; air pollution; atmospheric deposition; boreal forests; climate; climate change; economic development; ecosystems; environment; forest decline; latitude; nitrogen; ozone; particulates; photosynthesis; tree physiology; trees; China; Korean Peninsula; Mongolia; South East Asia
Abstract:
... Air pollution and atmospheric deposition have adverse effects on tree and forest health. We reviewed studies on tree and forest decline in Northeast and Southeast Asia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East (hereafter referred to as East Asia). This included studies published in domestic journals and languages. We identified information about the locations, causes, periods, and tree species exhibiting ...
... Atmospheric deposition of aerosols to the ocean provides an important pathway for the supply of vital micronutrients, including trace metals. These trace metals are essential for phytoplankton growth, and therefore their delivery to marine ecosystems can strongly influence the ocean carbon cycle. The solubility of trace metals in aerosols is a key parameter to better constrain their potential impa ...
... Priming effects (PE) can greatly influence global carbon (C) storage in soil and lead to climate feedbacks by accelerating the decomposition of organic matter (OM). Although nitrogen (N) availability can alter the magnitude and direction of priming (stoichiometric constrains), it remains unclear whether additions of NO₃⁻ (nitrate) and NH₄⁺ (ammonium) have distinct effects on the decomposition of v ...
... Widespread declines in mercury (Hg) in fish in pristine lakes in Fennoscandia since the 1970s are unexplained. Interactions between climate, atmospheric deposition, and elemental cycling of carbon (C), sulphur (S) and Hg are complex and affect Hg bioaccumulation. A parallel significant decline in methyl-Hg (MeHg) concentrations in aquatic macroinvertebrates (Chironomidae) was found between 1976–78 ...
... The contributions of long-lived nitrous oxide (N₂O) to global climate and environment have received increasing attention. Especially, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has substantially increased in recent decades due to the extensive use of fossil fuels in industry, which strongly stimulates the N₂O emissions of terrestrial ecosystem. Several models have been developed to simulate the impacts o ...
atmospheric deposition; climate; climate change; freshwater; mercury; methylation; methylmercury compounds; permafrost; sediments; snowmelt; water solubility; Arctic region
Abstract:
... Mercury and its speciation in aquatic ecosystems have been assessed globally. Even though previous studies were limited to Arctic freshwater lakes, they are highly significant in the context of the changing climate. The present study is based on sediment samples collected from three Arctic freshwater lakes over a period of 4 years (2015–2018). The samples were analysed for total mercury (THg), met ...
... Mercury concentrations in Lake Champlain fish increased (2011–2017) for the first time in more than two decades. The increase, however, was not consistent among species or throughout the lake. Mercury concentrations in smallmouth bass and yellow perch from the three Main Lake segments increased significantly while concentrations in the eastern portions of the lake (Northeast Arm and Malletts Bay) ...
... Elaborating the spatiotemporal variations and dynamic mechanisms of black carbon (BC) in coastal seas, the geographically pivotal intermediate zones that link the terrestrial and open oceanic ecosystems, will contribute significantly to refine the regional and global BC geochemistry. In this study, we implemented a large spatial-scale and multiseason and -layer seawater sampling campaign in high B ...
Salmonidae; administrative management; atmospheric deposition; chlorophyll; climate; dissolved oxygen; fish; lakes; nitrogen; organic matter; primary productivity; species richness; water quality
Abstract:
... Sia ME, Doyle RM, Moser KA. 2020. Recent trends in mountain lake primary production: evaluating the response to fish stocking relative to regional environmental stressors. Lake Reserv Manage. XX:XXX–XXX. Although mountain lakes are often remote, they are impacted by a myriad of stressors, including species introductions, atmospheric fertilization, and climate change. These stressors have the poten ...
... Peat bogs are valuable archives of environmental change, including climate history, landscape evolution, and atmospheric deposition of trace elements, fallout radionuclides, and organic contaminants. Maintaining the fidelity of peat samples during collection and handling can be challenging, given that bogs consist mainly of fossil plant materials that typically have a very low density and are easi ...
... Ombrotrophic peatlands are widely used to reconstruct atmospheric metal deposition histories. Here, we estimated the long-term atmospheric Pb deposition flux using ombrotrophic peatland data from the Changbai Mountains, northeast China. A peat profile of 320-cm depth was sampled and cut into 164 slices for measurement of Pb and other elements by ICP-MS and ICP-AES and radiometric dating by ²¹⁰Pb, ...
air pollution; atmospheric deposition; biogeochemical cycles; climate; critical load; decision making; ecosystem services; ecosystems; epiphytes; forage; forests; geography; lichens; meteorological data; models; nitrogen; regression analysis; risk; species richness; sulfur; surveys; United States
Abstract:
... Critical loads of atmospheric deposition help decision-makers identify levels of air pollution harmful to ecosystem components. But when critical loads are exceeded, how can the accompanying ecological risk be quantified? We use a 90% quantile regression to model relationships between nitrogen and sulfur deposition and epiphytic macrolichens, focusing on responses of concern to managers of US fore ...
... Calcium (Ca) is an essential macronutrient which plays a fundamental role in ecosystem structure and function. In temperate forest ecosystems, Ca oxalate is ubiquitous, existing in live and decomposing biomass pools. Calcium in minerals occurs principally as carbonate and silicate. Because of structural differences between its different forms, Ca speciation can influence the Ca biogeochemical cycl ...
... In the Baltic Sea hypoxia has been increased considerably since the first oxygen measurements became available in 1898. In 2016 the annual maximum extent of hypoxia covered an area of the sea bottom of about 70,000 km², comparable with the size of Ireland, whereas 150 years ago hypoxia was presumably not existent or at least very small. The general view is that the increase in hypoxia was caused b ...
... The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dyn ...
... The Minamata Convention to reduce anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emissions entered into force in 2017, and attention is now focused on how to best monitor its effectiveness at reducing Hg exposure to humans. A key question is how closely Hg concentrations in the human food chain, especially in fish and other aquatic wildlife, will track the changes in atmospheric Hg that are expected to occur followin ...
Craig A. Emmerton; Ken G. Beaty; Nora J. Casson; Jennifer A. Graydon; Raymond H. Hesslein; Scott N. Higgins; Hisham Osman; Michael J. Paterson; Andrew Park; Jacques C. Tardif
... The climate of the circumpolar Boreal forest is changing rapidly, resulting in a growing frequency of wildfires and changing precipitation patterns. These climate-related stressors may influence the cycling of nutrients within, and overall ecosystem condition of, Boreal watersheds. However, long-term perspectives of concurrent climate-related impacts on the cycling of nutrients in watersheds are r ...
... In the southwestern Tengger desert in northwestern China, nitrate circulation processes in the unsaturated zone and associated driving factors were studied using water chemistry and stable isotope techniques. At unvegetated sand sites, NO₃⁻ content increases from the south to north in the desert. Additionally, a negative correlation (R² = 0.90, P < 0.005) was evident between the stability of soil ...
anthropogenic activities; aquatic ecosystems; atmospheric deposition; autumn; byproducts; climate; disinfection; drinking water; ecological function; global change; monitoring; organic carbon; spring; streams; summer; surface water; time series analysis; water supply; water utilities; watersheds; winter
Abstract:
... Drinking water supplies are increasingly affected by overlapping anthropogenic global change processes. As a key currency of ecosystem function in aquatic ecosystems, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and composition is sensitive to many global change processes. However, DOC must also be removed to avoid the production of harmful disinfection byproducts as water is processed. Thus, unde ...
Anthropocene epoch; Bacillariophyceae; atmospheric deposition; climate; geochemistry; global warming; heavy metals; humans; lakes; nutrition; pollutants; pollution; primary productivity; sediments; socioeconomic development; trophic relationships; China
Abstract:
... Owing to rapid socio-economic development and climate warming, lakes even in remote areas have experienced marked changes in the last century. However, there are few studies revealing the multi-faceted biogeochemical changes and disentangling impacts of human and climate in relatively remote lakes in China. In this study we reconstructed historical changes of geochemistry, nutrition, primary produ ...
Marianne Zandersen; Kari Hyytiäinen; H. E. Markus Meier; Maciej T. Tomczak; Barbara Bauer; Päivi E. Haapasaari; Jørgen Eivind Olesen; Bo G. Gustafsson; Jens Christian Refsgaard; Erik Fridell; Sampo Pihlainen; Martin D. A. Le Tissier; Anna-Kaisa Kosenius; Detlef P. Van Vuuren
atmospheric deposition; climate; climate change; ecosystems; fisheries; human development; land use change; pollution; pollution control; shipping; socioeconomics; wastewater treatment; Baltic Sea; Northern European region
Abstract:
... Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers bo ...
Stefan J. Forstner; Viktoria Wechselberger; Stefanie Müller; Katharina M. Keibinger; Eugenio Díaz-Pinés; Wolfgang Wanek; Patrick Scheppi; Frank Hagedorn; Per Gundersen; Michael Tatzber; Martin H. Gerzabek; Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
... Nitrogen (N) inputs from atmospheric deposition can increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in temperate and boreal forests, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions on global climate. However, direct evidence of N-induced SOC sequestration from low-dose, long-term N addition experiments (that is, addition of < 50 kg N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ for > 10 years) is scarce worldwide an ...
Christopher M. Clark; Jennifer Phelan; Prakash Doraiswamy; John Buckley; James C. Cajka; Robin L. Dennis; Jason Lynch; Christopher G. Nolte; Tanya L. Spero
acidification; air quality; aquatic ecosystems; atmospheric deposition; botanical composition; climate; climate change; critical load; databases; decision making; issues and policy; leaching; lichens; nitrates; nitrogen; sulfur; United States
Abstract:
... Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) has increased dramatically over pre‐industrial levels, with many potential impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Quantitative thresholds, termed “critical loads” (CLs), have been developed to estimate the deposition rate above which damage is thought to occur. However, there remains no comprehensive comparison of when, where, and over ...
Ruth J. Mitchell; Richard L. Hewison; Debbie A. Fielding; Julia M. Fisher; Diana J. Gilbert; Sonja Hurskainen; Robin J. Pakeman; Jacqueline M. Potts; David Riach
... The predicted long lag time between a decrease in atmospheric deposition and a measured response in vegetation has generally excluded the investigation of vegetation recovery from the impacts of atmospheric deposition. However, policy-makers require such evidence to assess whether policy decisions to reduce emissions will have a positive impact on habitats. Here we have shown that 40 years after t ...
Picea abies; air; air pollution; air temperature; atmospheric deposition; climate; dendroclimatology; forest ecosystems; research; soil; trees; water; wood; Czech Republic
Abstract:
... In the Czech Republic, mountain watersheds are mostly forested with dominant Norway spruce (Picea abies) plantations. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in radial growth and xylem anatomy of Norway spruce trees in the upper plain of the Jizera Mountains, related to changes in climate (air temperature, precipitation), air pollution and acid atmospheric deposition. Data of two neighbouring ...
Bacillariophyceae; altitude; anthropogenic activities; atmospheric deposition; biodiversity; cesium; climate; dust; global warming; lakes; land use change; landscapes; lead; radiative forcing; radionuclides; sediments; watersheds; China
Abstract:
... Remote alpine regions were considered to be largely unimpacted by anthropogenic disturbance, but it is now clear these areas are changing rapidly. It is often difficult to identify the causal processes underpinning ecological change because the main drivers (direct and indirect climate forcing, land use change and atmospheric deposition) are acting simultaneously. In addition, alpine landscapes ar ...
Clean Air Act; Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; atmospheric deposition; climate; denitrification; land cover; nitrates; nitrogen; oxidation; pollution load; rivers; simulation models; watersheds; North Carolina
Abstract:
... The SWAT model was used to estimate the combined effects of changing land cover, climate and Clean Air Act (CAAA)-related atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to watershed nitrogen fate and transport for two watersheds in North Carolina, USA. Two different model simulation scenarios were applied: one included CAAA-related atmospheric N deposition, climate and land cover (CAAD + C + L) and the other ...
atmospheric deposition; climate; climate change; climate models; data collection; drought; dry season; ecosystems; freshwater; hydrologic models; industrialization; industry; irrigation; monsoon season; nutrients; pollution; rivers; socioeconomics; water quality; water supply; watersheds; Bangladesh; Bay of Bengal; India
Abstract:
... The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System, the associated Hooghly River and the Mahanadi River System represent the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 780 million. The rivers are of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as they provide fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and support the Delta System in the Bay of Bengal. Future changes in b ...
atmospheric deposition; Pinus; Larix; drought; national forests; trees; Quercus; data collection; Picea abies; Fraxinus; soil pH; conifers; climate; harvesting; variance; Acer; Abies alba; models; stand density; temperature; Fagus sylvatica; prediction; tree growth; nitrogen; forest inventory; stand basal area; Central European region; Switzerland
Abstract:
... We used data from representatively sampled trees to identify key drivers of tree growth for central European tree species. Nonlinear mixed models were fitted to individual-tree basal area increments (BAI) from the Swiss national forest inventory. Data from 1983 to 2006 were used for model fitting and data from 2009 to 2013 for model evaluation. We considered 23 potential explanatory variables spec ...