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You searched for: Subject climate change Remove constraint Subject: climate change Subject climate Remove constraint Subject: climate Subject term Baltic Sea Remove constraint Subject term: Baltic Sea
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1. Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe?

Author:
M. Gröger; C. Dieterich; H. E. M. Meier
Source:
Climate dynamics 2021 v.56 no.1-2 pp. 491-514
ISSN:
0930-7575
Subject:
air; air temperature; climate; climate change; coasts; dynamics; heat; mussels; oceans; recreation; sea ice; summer; surface water temperature; uncertainty; warm season; wind; Baltic Sea; Europe; North Sea
Abstract:
... The majority of regional climate change assessments for the Euro-CORDEX region is based on high resolution atmosphere models. These models use prescribed lower boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SST) from global ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs), that do not respond to changes simulated by the regional atmosphere model, thus lacking an important feedback to the atmosphere ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00382-020-05489-8

2. Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

Author:
Ivo C. Bobsien; Wolfgang Hukriede; Christian Schlamkow; René Friedland; Norman Dreier; Philipp R. Schubert; Rolf Karez; Thorsten B. H. Reusch
Source:
Ambio 2021 v.50 no.2 pp. 400-412
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
Zostera marina; climate; climate change; coasts; eutrophication; geographical distribution; hydrodynamics; models; turbidity; wind; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbid ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-020-01364-2

3. Modelling framework for flow, sediments and nutrient loads in a large transboundary river watershed: A climate change impact assessment of the Nemunas River watershed

Author:
Natalja Čerkasova; Georg Umgiesser; Ali Ertürk
Source:
Journal of hydrology 2021 v.598 pp. 126422
ISSN:
0022-1694
Subject:
Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; basins; carbon dioxide; climate; climate change; freeze-thaw cycles; nitrogen; nutrient retention; phosphorus; pollution load; rivers; sediments; snowpack; soil; stream flow; temperature; topographic slope; total nitrogen; total phosphorus; watersheds; winter; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... This study provides an in-depth analysis of the Nemunas River watershed, situated in the Baltic Sea basin, and possible future changes to the stream flow, hydrologic regime, sediment (SS), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) load from the river to the Curonian Lagoon under different climate change scenarios using high-resolution modelling. The sub-regions of the watershed, represented by ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126422

4. Short-Term Effects of Droughts and Cold Winters on the Growth of Scots Pine at Coastal Sand Dunes around the South Baltic Sea

Author:
Karolina Janecka; Sandra Metslaid; Marek Metslaid; Jill E. Harvey; Martin Wilmking
Source:
Forests 2022 v.13 no.3 pp. -
ISSN:
1999-4907
Subject:
climate; climate change; cold; forest growth; latewood; sand; trees; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Coastal dunes near the Baltic Sea are often stabilized by Scots pine forests and are characterized by a mild climate. These ecosystems are affected by water shortages and might be influenced by climate extremes. Considering future climate change, utilizing tree rings could help assess the role of climate extremes on coastal forest growth. We used superposed epoch analysis to study Scots pine respo ...
DOI:
10.3390/f13030477

5. Valuating environmental impacts from ship emissions – The marine perspective

Author:
Erik Ytreberg; Stefan Åström; Erik Fridell
Source:
Journal of environmental management 2021 v.282 pp. 111958
ISSN:
0301-4797
Subject:
air pollution; air quality; case studies; climate; climate change; cost benefit analysis; cost effectiveness; ecotoxicology; environmental economics; environmental management; eutrophication; human health; issues and policy; life cycle assessment; marine environment; risk; social welfare; socioeconomic factors; willingness to pay; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Shipping is an activity responsible for a range of different pressures affecting the marine environment, air quality and human welfare. The methodology on how ship emissions impact air quality and human health are comparatively well established and used in cost-benefit analysis of policy proposals. However, the knowledge base is not the same for impacts on the marine environment and a coherent env ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.111958

6. Integrated ecosystem impacts of climate change and eutrophication on main Baltic fishery resources

Author:
Sieme Bossier; J. Rasmus Nielsen; Elin Almroth-Rosell; Anders Höglund; Francois Bastardie; Stefan Neuenfeldt; Iréne Wåhlström; Asbjørn Christensen
Source:
Ecological modelling 2021 v.453 pp. 109609
ISSN:
0304-3800
Subject:
climate; climate change; decision making; ecological models; ecosystem management; eutrophication; fisheries; herring; hydrology; marine ecosystems; pollution load; riparian areas; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The Baltic Sea is a heavily impacted ecosystem with multiple pressures acting simultaneously. In order to quantify ecosystem impacts of integrated climate change and eutrophication pressures under constant high fishing pressure, and to support decision-making and policies in generating environmental and economic sustainable systems, the Baltic Atlantis holistic and mechanistic ecosystem model was ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109609

7. Freshening rather than warming drives trematode transmission from periwinkles to mussels

Author:
Claudia Bommarito; Christian Pansch; Maral Khosravi; Fabio Pranovi; Martin Wahl; David W. Thieltges
Source:
Marine biology 2020 v.167 no.4 pp. 46
ISSN:
0025-3162
Subject:
Himasthla elongata; Littorina littorea; Mytilus edulis; cercariae; climate; climate change; desalination; host-parasite relationships; intermediate hosts; longevity; marine ecosystems; metacercariae; mussels; parasites; pathogenicity; salinity; seawater; temperature; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... In the Western Baltic Sea, climate change is happening at much faster rate than in most other seas and organisms are additionally exposed to a steep and variable salinity gradient. Climate change has previously been shown to affect parasite transmission in other marine ecosystems, yet little is known about potential effects of warming and desalination on parasite–host interactions. In laboratory e ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00227-020-3657-3

8. Influence of environmental conditions, population density, and prey type on the lipid content in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) from the northern Baltic Sea

Author:
Marjut Rajasilta; Jari Hänninen; Lea Laaksonen; Päivi Laine; Jukka-Pekka Suomela; Ilppo Vuorinen; Katja Mäkinen
Source:
Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences 2019 v.76 no.4 pp. 576-585
ISSN:
1205-7533
Subject:
Clupea harengus; climate; climate change; docosahexaenoic acid; ecosystems; eicosapentaenoic acid; energy content; energy flow; environmental factors; fatty acid composition; herring; lipid content; models; muscles; physiology; population density; seawater; spawning; summer; water salinity; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Global climate change can affect the energy content of fish by altering their lipid physiology and consumption. We investigated the effects of different environmental stressors on the lipid content of the Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) from spawning ground samples that were collected annually in the northern Baltic Sea. During 1987–2014, the average lipid content of herring muscle decrea ...
DOI:
10.1139/cjfas-2017-0504

9. Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

Author:
Marianne Zandersen; Kari Hyytiäinen; H. E. Markus Meier; Maciej T. Tomczak; Barbara Bauer; Päivi E. Haapasaari; Jørgen Eivind Olesen; Bo G. Gustafsson; Jens Christian Refsgaard; Erik Fridell; Sampo Pihlainen; Martin D. A. Le Tissier; Anna-Kaisa Kosenius; Detlef P. Van Vuuren
Source:
Regional environmental change 2019 v.19 no.4 pp. 1073-1086
ISSN:
1436-3798
Subject:
atmospheric deposition; climate; climate change; ecosystems; fisheries; human development; land use change; pollution; pollution control; shipping; socioeconomics; wastewater treatment; Baltic Sea; Northern European region
Abstract:
... Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers bo ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

10. Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates

Author:
Sofia Saraiva; H. E. Markus Meier; Helén Andersson; Anders Höglund; Christian Dieterich; Matthias Gröger; Robinson Hordoir; Kari Eilola
Source:
Climate dynamics 2019 v.52 no.5-6 pp. 3369-3387
ISSN:
0930-7575
Subject:
anthropogenic activities; climate; climate change; climate models; ecosystems; environmental factors; eutrophication; greenhouse gas emissions; pollution load; primary productivity; runoff; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The Baltic Sea is a shallow, semi-enclosed brackish sea suffering like many other coastal seas from eutrophication caused by human impact. Hence, nutrient load abatement strategies are intensively discussed. With the help of a high-resolution, coupled physical-biogeochemical circulation model we investigate the combined impact of changing nutrient loads from land and changing climate during the 21 ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00382-018-4330-0

11. Controls on the onset and termination of past hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

Author:
Nina M. Papadomanolaki; Nikki Dijkstra; Niels A.G.M. van Helmond; Mathilde Hagens; Thorsten Bauersachs; Ulrich Kotthoff; Francesca Sangiorgi; Caroline P. Slomp
Source:
Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology 2018 v.490 pp. 347-354
ISSN:
0031-0182
Subject:
Miozoa; anthropogenic activities; climate; climate change; hypoxia; oxygen; palynology; salinity; sediments; surface water temperature; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The Baltic Sea is currently the largest marine hypoxic (O2<2mgL⁻¹) ‘dead zone’ following excessive nutrient input from anthropogenic activities over the past century. Widespread hypoxia has previously developed in the Baltic Sea during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 8–4ka before present; BP) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 1.4–0.7ka BP). Here we study the mechanisms that contributed to ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.palaeo.2017.11.012

12. Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850

Author:
H. E. M. Meier; K. Eilola; E. Almroth-Rosell; S. Schimanke; M. Kniebusch; A. Höglund; P. Pemberton; Y. Liu; G. Väli; S. Saraiva
Source:
Climate dynamics 2019 v.53 no.1-2 pp. 1145-1166
ISSN:
0930-7575
Subject:
air temperature; atmospheric deposition; climate; climate change; ecosystems; environmental indicators; eutrophication; models; nutrient content; oxygen; pollution load; sea level; Baltic Sea; Ireland; North Sea
Abstract:
... In the Baltic Sea hypoxia has been increased considerably since the first oxygen measurements became available in 1898. In 2016 the annual maximum extent of hypoxia covered an area of the sea bottom of about 70,000 km², comparable with the size of Ireland, whereas 150 years ago hypoxia was presumably not existent or at least very small. The general view is that the increase in hypoxia was caused b ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00382-018-4296-y

13. Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

Author:
Alena Bartosova; René Capell; Jørgen E. Olesen; Mohamed Jabloun; Jens Christian Refsgaard; Chantal Donnelly; Kari Hyytiäinen; Sampo Pihlainen; Marianne Zandersen; Berit Arheimer
Source:
Ambio 2019 v.48 no.11 pp. 1325-1336
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
atmospheric deposition; climate; climate change; dynamic models; emissions; eutrophication; issues and policy; land use; nitrogen; phosphorus; pollution load; socioeconomic factors; wastewater; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dyn ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5
PubMed:
31542889
PubMed Central:
PMC6814641

14. Microalgae biotechnology in Nordic countries – the potential of local strains

Author:
Otilia Cheregi; Susanne Ekendahl; Johan Engelbrektsson; Niklas Strömberg; Anna Godhe; Cornelia Spetea
Source:
Physiologia plantarum 2019 v.166 no.1 pp. 438-450
ISSN:
0031-9317
Subject:
biofuels; biotechnology; climate; climate change; energy efficiency; feedstocks; food security; freshwater; lakes; microalgae; remediation; rivers; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea; Scandinavia
Abstract:
... Climate change, energy use and food security are the main challenges that our society is facing nowadays. Biofuels and feedstock from microalgae can be part of the solution if high and continuous production is to be ensured. This could be attained in year‐round, low cost, outdoor cultivation systems using strains that are not only champion producers of desired compounds but also have robust growth ...
DOI:
10.1111/ppl.12951
PubMed:
30809828
PubMed Central:
PMC6850598

15. Nitrate leaching losses from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate

Author:
Jørgen E. Olesen; Christen D. Børgesen; Fatemeh Hashemi; Mohamed Jabloun; Dominika Bar-Michalczyk; Przemyslaw Wachniew; Anna J. Zurek; Alena Bartosova; Thomas Bosshard; Anne L. Hansen; Jens C. Refsgaard
Source:
Ambio 2019 v.48 no.11 pp. 1252-1263
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
climate; climate change; climate models; hydrologic models; land use; leaching; nitrates; nitrogen; nutrients; pollution load; surface water; water pollution; water quality; watersheds; Baltic Sea; Denmark; Poland
Abstract:
... Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two Baltic Sea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and MIKE SHE or MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transp ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-019-01254-2
PubMed:
31542886
PubMed Central:
PMC6814696

16. Sensitivity of the overturning circulation of the Baltic Sea to climate change, a numerical experiment

Author:
Robinson Hordoir; Anders Höglund; Per Pemberton; Semjon Schimanke
Source:
Climate dynamics 2018 v.50 no.3-4 pp. 1425-1437
ISSN:
0930-7575
Subject:
climate; climate change; greenhouse gas emissions; mixing; models; temperature profiles; wind; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... An ocean model covering the Baltic Sea area is forced by several climate scenarios for a period extending from 1961 to 2100. The Baltic Sea overturning circulation is then analyzed. The analysis shows that this circulation decreases between the end of the 20th century and the end of the 21st century, and that the decrease is amplified in the case of the strongest greenhouse gas emission scenarios, ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00382-017-3695-9

17. Variations in tolerance to climate change in a key littoral herbivore

Author:
Luca Rugiu; Iita Manninen; Joakim Sjöroos; Veijo Jormalainen
Source:
Marine biology 2018 v.165 no.1 pp. 18
ISSN:
0025-3162
Subject:
biodiversity; brackish water; climate; climate change; genetic variation; geographical variation; herbivores; littoral zone; macrophytes; marine ecosystems; surface water; survival rate; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Changes in global climate patterns are affecting marine ecosystems, challenging species’ environmental tolerances, and driving shifts in their distributions. In the Baltic Sea, a brackish water body with low biodiversity, the isopod Idotea balthica is a key herbivore species that has a strong top–down effect on habitat-forming macrophytes. Our aim is to understand how the predicted future combinat ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00227-017-3275-x

18. Water Quality Management and Climate Change Mitigation: Cost-effectiveness of Joint Implementation in the Baltic Sea Region

Author:
Doan Nainggolan; Berit Hasler; Hans E. Andersen; Steen Gyldenkærne; Mette Termansen
Source:
Ecological economics 2018 v.144 pp. 12-26
ISSN:
0921-8009
Subject:
climate; climate change; cost effectiveness; economic impact; greenhouse gas emissions; greenhouse gases; issues and policy; models; pollution load; wastewater; water quality; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... This paper explores the scope for simultaneously managing nutrient abatement and climate change mitigation in the Baltic Sea (BS) region through the implementation of a selection of measures. The analysis is undertaken using a cost-minimisation model for the entire BS region, the BALTCOST model. In the present research, the model has been extended to include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effects, ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.026

19. High climate velocity and population fragmentation may constrain climate‐driven range shift of the key habitat former Fucus vesiculosus

Author:
Per R. Jonsson; Jonne Kotta; Helén C. Andersson; Kristjan Herkül; Elina Virtanen; Antonia Nyström Sandman; Kerstin Johannesson
Source:
Diversity & distributions 2018 v.24 no.7 pp. 892-905
ISSN:
1366-9516
Subject:
Fucus vesiculosus; biodiversity; biogeography; bladder; climate; climate change; dynamic models; extinction; freshwater; genotype; habitat fragmentation; habitats; population dynamics; risk; salinity; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... AIM: The Baltic Sea forms a unique regional sea with its salinity gradient ranging from marine to nearly freshwater conditions. It is one of the most environmentally impacted brackish seas worldwide, and the low biodiversity makes it particularly sensitive to anthropogenic pressures including climate change. We applied a novel combination of models to predict the fate of one of the dominant founda ...
DOI:
10.1111/ddi.12733

20. Is the future as tasty as the present? Elevated temperature and hyposalinity affect the quality of Fucus (Phaeophyceae, Fucales) as food for the isopod Idotea balthica

Author:
Eva Rothäusler; Fiia Haavisto; Veijo Jormalainen
Source:
Marine biology 2017 v.164 no.11 pp. 207
ISSN:
0025-3162
Subject:
Fucus; Isopoda; adverse effects; climate; climate change; food consumption; food quality; grazing; herbivores; macroalgae; temperature; thallus; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Climate change is acknowledged to affect directly macroalgal performance but its indirect effect through changes in algal interaction with herbivores remains poorly understood. To study effects of climate change on a macroalga–herbivore interaction, we exposed three range-margin Baltic Sea populations of Fucus (60°N 39°E, 61°N 21°E, 62°N 21°E) in September 2015 to current (15.1 °C; 5.2 PSU) and pr ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00227-017-3237-3

21. Metabarcoding successfully tracks temporal changes in eukaryotic communities in coastal sediments

Author:
I S Salonen; P-M Chronopoulou; E Leskinen; K A Koho
Source:
FEMS microbiology ecology 2018 v.95 no.1 pp. -
ISSN:
1574-6941
Subject:
DNA barcoding; climate; climate change; coastal sediments; ecosystems; environmental factors; environmental monitoring; eukaryotic cells; high-throughput nucleotide sequencing; marine sediments; seasonal variation; variance; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Metabarcoding is a method that combines high-throughput DNA sequencing and DNA-based identification. Previously, this method has been successfully used to target spatial variation of eukaryote communities in marine sediments, however, the temporal changes in these communities remain understudied. Here, we follow the temporal changes of the eukaryote communities in Baltic Sea surface sediments coll ...
DOI:
10.1093/femsec/fiy226

22. Modelling the effects of land use and climate change on the water resources in the eastern Baltic Sea region using the SWAT model

Author:
Ottar Tamm; Siim Maasikamäe; Allar Padari; Toomas Tamm
Source:
Catena 2018 v.167 pp. 78-89
ISSN:
0341-8162
Subject:
Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; basins; climate; climate change; forests; issues and policy; land use change; reproduction; rivers; runoff; water management; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Combined and separate impact of climate and land use change on the future river runoff was assessed in the eastern Baltic Sea region by using the SWAT (The Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. SWAT was applied to assess how plausible changes in climate and land use may affect the river hydrology by the end of the century. The model was calibrated and validated for a period from 1970 ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.catena.2018.04.029

23. Regional decision-makers as potential users of Extreme Weather Event Attribution - Case studies from the German Baltic Sea coast and the Greater Paris area

Author:
Maria Schwab; Insa Meinke; Jean-Paul Vanderlinden; Hans von Storch
Source:
Weather and Climate Extremes 2017 pp. -
ISSN:
2212-0947
Subject:
case studies; climate; climate change; coasts; decision making; economic valuation; experts; heat; interviews; politics; risk; socioeconomics; stakeholders; storms; uncertainty; Baltic Sea; France; Germany
Abstract:
... Extreme Event Attribution has raised increasing attention in climate science in the last years. It means to judge the extent to which certain weather-related extreme events have changed due to human influences on climate with probabilistic statements. Extreme Event Attribution is often anticipated to spur more than just scientific ambition. It is able to provide answers to a commonly asked questio ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.wace.2017.09.001

24. Comparison of the AVI, modified SINTACS and GALDIT vulnerability methods under future climate-change scenarios for a shallow low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland

Author:
Samrit Luoma; Jarkko Okkonen; Kirsti Korkka-Niemi
Source:
Hydrogeology journal 2017 v.25 no.1 pp. 203-222
ISSN:
1431-2174
Subject:
aquifers; climate; climate change; dry season; groundwater; groundwater recharge; guidelines; humans; risk assessment; saltwater intrusion; sea level; seasonal variation; snowmelt; Baltic Sea; Finland
Abstract:
... A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharg ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10040-016-1471-2

25. Long-term and interannual changes of submerged macrophytes and their associated diaspore reservoir in a shallow southern Baltic Sea bay: influence of eutrophication and climate

Author:
Irmgard Blindow; Sven Dahlke; Annika Dewart; Sandra Flügge; Marko Hendreschke; Antje Kerkow; Jutta Meyer
Source:
Hydrobiologia 2016 v.778 no.1 pp. 121-136
ISSN:
0018-8158
Subject:
Chara; Ruppia; Stuckenia pectinata; Tolypella; climate; climate change; eutrophication; germination; ice; macrophytes; oospores; seeds; surveys; vegetation cover; weather; Baltic Sea; Germany
Abstract:
... Long-term and interannual changes in composition of submerged vegetation, diaspore reservoir and germination were investigated in the lagoon system Westrügensche Boddenkette, Baltic Sea, north-east Germany. Comparison with a survey from 1932, showed vegetation cover is similar to the past, maintaining high cover to depths of 2.8 m despite a period of eutrophication between about 1960 and 1990. Spe ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10750-016-2655-4

26. Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections

Author:
D. Carvalho; A. Rocha; M. Gómez-Gesteira; C. Silva Santos
Source:
Renewable energy 2017 v.101 pp. 29-40
ISSN:
0960-1481
Subject:
climate; climate change; models; radiative forcing; uncertainty; wind power; wind speed; Baltic Sea; Europe; Mediterranean region
Abstract:
... Climate change impact on future European large-scale wind energy resource under the latest IPCC CMIP5 future climate projections were analysed. After assessing the models that best reproduce contemporary near-surface wind speeds over Europe, their data was used to assess future changes in the wind energetic resource in Europe.Using a multi-model ensemble composed by the models that showed the best ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.renene.2016.08.036

27. Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea

Author:
Thomas Thøgersen; Ayoe Hoff; Hans S. Frost
Source:
Climate risk management 2015 v.10 pp. 51-62
ISSN:
2212-0963
Subject:
bioeconomics; climate; climate change; economic impact; economic performance; economic sustainability; environmental factors; fish industry; fisheries management; fishermen; herring; models; mortality; reproductive performance; risk management; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The long term management plan for cod in the eastern Baltic Sea was introduced in 2007 to ensure the full reproductive capacity of cod and an economically viable fishing industry. If these goals are to be fulfilled under changing environmental conditions, a readjustment of the current management plan may be needed. Therefore, this paper investigates the economic impacts of managing the cod, sprat ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.crm.2015.09.001

28. Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Author:
Arvid Bring; Peter Rogberg; Georgia Destouni
Source:
Ambio 2015 v.44 no.Supplement 3 pp. 381-391
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
climate; climate change; models; monitoring; nutrient content; nutrient management; pollution load; rivers; runoff; uncertainty; water flow; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes eith ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5
PubMed:
26022321
PubMed Central:
PMC4447692

29. Climate change and the potential effects on runoff and nitrogen losses in the Nordic–Baltic region

Author:
Lillian Øygarden; Johannes Deelstra; Ainis Lagzdins; Marianne Bechmann; Inga Greipsland; Katarina Kyllmar; Arvydas Povilaitis; Arvo Iital
Source:
Agriculture, ecosystems & environment 2014 v.198 pp. 114-126
ISSN:
0167-8809
Subject:
European Union; agricultural management; atmospheric precipitation; climate; climate change; fungicides; greenhouse gas emissions; greenhouse gases; growing season; monitoring; nitrates; nitrogen; nutrients; runoff; tillage; water quality; watersheds; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Climatic changes will influence the possibilities for agricultural production (e.g. longer growing season), agricultural management practices (e.g. changes in tillage, fertilization, increased use of fungicides) and runoff conditions, and thereby the losses of nutrients from agricultural fields to the environment. Nitrogen (N) is of particular interest in the Baltic Sea region because of its adver ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.025

30. Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Author:
Hanna Eriksson Hägg; Steve W. Lyon; Teresia Wällstedt; Carl-Magnus Mörth; Björn Claremar; Christoph Humborg
Source:
Ambio 2014 v.43 no.3 pp. 337-351
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
climate; climate change; human population; lifestyle; nitrogen content; nutrient transport; phosphorus; pollution load; runoff; simulation models; watersheds; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-013-0416-4
PubMed:
23765871
PubMed Central:
PMC3946118

31. Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

Author:
Samrit Luoma; Jarkko Okkonen
Source:
Water 2014 v.6 no.12 pp. 3671-3700
ISSN:
2073-4441
Subject:
aquifers; climate; climate change; drought; groundwater; groundwater flow; groundwater recharge; hydrologic models; infiltration rate; sea level; seawater; snow; spring; summer; surface water; water quality; water table; winter; Baltic Sea; Finland
Abstract:
... The impact of climate change and Baltic Sea level rise on groundwater resources in a shallow, unconfined, low-lying coastal aquifer in Hanko, southern Finland, was assessed using the UZF1 model package coupled with the three-dimensional groundwater flow model MODFLOW to simulate flow from the unsaturated zone through the aquifer. The snow and PET models were used to calculate the surface water ava ...
DOI:
10.3390/w6123671

32. Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model

Author:
Deguo Kong; Matthew MacLeod; Ian T. Cousins
Source:
Chemosphere 2014 v.110 pp. 31-40
ISSN:
0045-6535
Subject:
climate; climate change; models; organic compounds; particulate organic carbon; persistent organic pollutants; temperature; wind speed; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entir ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.chemosphere.2014.02.044

33. River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate

Author:
Chantal Donnelly; Wei Yang; Joel Dahné
Source:
Climatic change 2014 v.122 no.1-2 pp. 157-170
ISSN:
0165-0009
Subject:
climate; climate change; climate models; emissions; hydrologic models; rivers; scenario uncertainty; temperature; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing two h ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10584-013-0941-y

34. Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas–implications for environmental monitoring

Author:
Ilppo Vuorinen; Jari Hänninen; Marjut Rajasilta; Päivi Laine; Jan Eklund; Federico Montesino-Pouzols; Francesco Corona; Karin Junker; H.E.Markus Meier; Joachim W. Dippner
Source:
Ecological indicators 2015 v.50 pp. 196-205
ISSN:
1470-160X
Subject:
climate; climate change; climate models; ecosystems; environmental impact; environmental monitoring; fish; fisheries; freshwater; latitude; rain; runoff; salinity; watersheds; Baltic Sea; North Sea
Abstract:
... Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to mode ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.10.019
PubMed:
25737660
PubMed Central:
PMC4308008

35. Societal, land cover and climatic controls on river nutrient flows into the Baltic Sea

Author:
Rémon Saaltink; Ype van der Velde; Stefan C. Dekker; Steve W. Lyon; Helen E. Dahlke
Source:
Journal of hydrology 2014 v.1 pp. 44-56
ISSN:
2214-5818
Subject:
algal blooms; climate; climate change; eutrophication; factor analysis; land cover; nitrogen; nutrient content; nutrients; phosphorus; pollution load; rivers; seawater; temperature; water quality; watersheds; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... River basins draining into the Baltic Sea, known as the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB).Dramatic shifts in water quality have been observed in the Baltic Sea in past decades. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trends in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in relation to societal, land cover and climatic changes. A 31-year record of observed catchment scale nutrient concentration and ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.06.001

36. Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

Author:
Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Marek Giełczewski; Paweł Marcinkowski; Tomasz Okruszko
Source:
Ambio 2014 v.43 no.5 pp. 644-660
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
Soil and Water Assessment Tool model; climate; climate change; coasts; constructed wetlands; crop yield; eutrophication; intensive farming; land cover; land use change; pollution load; rivers; spring; water quality; watersheds; winter; Baltic Sea; Poland
Abstract:
... Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northe ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-013-0461-z
PubMed:
24154850
PubMed Central:
PMC4132465

37. Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

Author:
H. E. Markus Meier; Helén C. Andersson; Berit Arheimer; Chantal Donnelly; Kari Eilola; Bo G. Gustafsson; Lech Kotwicki; Tina-Simone Neset; Susa Niiranen; Joanna Piwowarczyk; Oleg P. Savchuk; Frederik Schenk; Jan Marcin Węsławski; Eduardo Zorita
Source:
Ambio 2014 v.43 no.1 pp. 37-48
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
models; climate change; ecosystems; ice; biogeochemistry; marine fisheries; climate; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenari ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6
PubMed:
24414803
PubMed Central:
PMC3888662

38. Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

Author:
Valerio Bartolino; Piotr Margonski; Martin Lindegren; Hans. W. Linderholm; Massimiliano Cardinale; David Rayner; Håkan Wennhage; Michele Casini
Source:
Fisheries oceanography 2014 v.23 no.3 pp. 258-269
ISSN:
1365-2419
Subject:
Clupea harengus; anthropogenic activities; biomass; case studies; climate; climate change; climate models; cod (fish); ecosystems; fisheries; fisheries management; herring; mortality; predation; salinity; spawning; surface water temperature; synergism; temporal variation; uncertainty; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. ...
DOI:
10.1111/fog.12060

39. Realized niche width of a brackish water submerged aquatic vegetation under current environmental conditions and projected influences of climate change

Author:
Jonne Kotta; Tiia Möller; Helen Orav-Kotta; Merli Pärnoja
Source:
Marine environmental research 2014 v.102 pp. 88-101
ISSN:
0141-1136
Subject:
biogeography; biomass; brackish water; climate; climate change; ecosystems; environmental factors; eutrophication; growing season; ice; managers; models; seawater; spring; submerged aquatic plants; turbidity; vegetation; water salinity; water temperature; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Little is known about how organisms might respond to multiple climate stressors and this lack of knowledge limits our ability to manage coastal ecosystems under contemporary climate change. Ecological models provide managers and decision makers with greater certainty that the systems affected by their decisions are accurately represented. In this study Boosted Regression Trees modelling was used t ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.marenvres.2014.05.002

40. The climate change impact on the water balance of the Curonian Lagoon

Author:
D. Jakimavičius; J. Kriaučiūnienė
Source:
Water resources 2013 v.40 no.2 pp. 120-132
ISSN:
0097-8078
Subject:
basins; brackish water; climate; climate change; computer software; ecosystems; evaporation; freshwater; greenhouse gas emissions; prediction; rivers; runoff; saline water; seawater; temperature; weather; Baltic Sea; Lithuania
Abstract:
... The Curonian Lagoon is the biggest fresh water basin in Lithuania influenced by the exchange of the fresh Nemunas and other smaller rivers’ water and saline water of the Baltic Sea. The lagoon ecosystem is influenced by fresh, brackish and brackish water masses. A long-term water balance of the Curonian Lagoon was calculated for the period of 1960–2009. The sum river inflow is 21.784 km³/year, pre ...
DOI:
10.1134/S0097807813020097

41. Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

Author:
Berit Arheimer; Joel Dahné; Chantal Donnelly
Source:
Ambio 2012 v.41 no.6 pp. 600-612
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
climate; climate change; eutrophication; models; monitoring; pollution load; water analysis; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-012-0323-0
PubMed:
22926882
PubMed Central:
PMC3428487

42. Effect of climate change on the thermal stratification of the baltic sea: a sensitivity experiment

Author:
R. Hordoir; H. E. M. Meier
Source:
Climate dynamics 2012 v.38 no.9-10 pp. 1703-1713
ISSN:
0930-7575
Subject:
climate; climate change; freshwater; models; spring; temperature profiles; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The evolution in time of the thermal vertical stratification of the Baltic Sea in future climate is studied using a 3D ocean model. Comparing periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty first centuries we found a strong increase in stratification at the bottom of the mixed layer in the northern Baltic Sea. In order to understand the causes of this increase, a sensitivity analysis is performed. ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00382-011-1036-y

43. Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Author:
H. E. Markus Meier; Bärbel Müller-Karulis; Helén C. Andersson; Christian Dieterich; Kari Eilola; Bo G. Gustafsson; Anders Höglund; Robinson Hordoir; Ivan Kuznetsov; Thomas Neumann; Zohreh Ranjbar; Oleg P. Savchuk; Semjon Schimanke
Source:
Ambio 2012 v.41 no.6 pp. 558-573
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
biogeochemical cycles; climate; climate change; denitrification; models; nitrogen fixation; oxygen; phosphorus; pollution load; sediments; summer; water quality; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical–biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961–2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-012-0320-3
PubMed:
22926879
PubMed Central:
PMC3428484

44. Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Author:
Brian R. MacKenzie; H. E. Markus Meier; Martin Lindegren; Stefan Neuenfeldt; Margit Eero; Thorsten Blenckner; Maciej T. Tomczak; Susa Niiranen
Source:
Ambio 2012 v.41 no.6 pp. 626-636
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
uncertainty; models; climate change; Sprattus sprattus; eutrophication; fish; ecosystems; temperature; biomass; fisheries; climate; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-012-0325-y
PubMed:
22926884
PubMed Central:
PMC3428476

45. Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

Author:
Kari Eilola; Elin Almroth Rosell; Christian Dieterich; Filippa Fransner; Anders Höglund; H. E. Markus Meier
Source:
Ambio 2012 v.41 no.6 pp. 586-599
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
General Circulation Models; biogeochemical cycles; climate; climate change; inorganic phosphorus; nutrients; pollution load; water flow; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical–physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961–2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-012-0322-1
PubMed:
22926881
PubMed Central:
PMC3428478

46. New Levels of Climate Adaptation Policy: Analyzing the Institutional Interplay in the Baltic Sea Region

Author:
Erik Glaas; Sirkku Juhola
Source:
Sustainability 2013 v.5 no.1 pp. 256-275
ISSN:
2071-1050
Subject:
European Union; biodiversity; climate; climate change; extinction; international policy and programs; landslides; Baltic Sea; Finland; Sweden
Abstract:
... International policy development and expected climate change impacts such as flooding, landslides, and the extinction of sensitive species have forced countries around the Baltic Sea to begin working on national climate adaptation policies. Simultaneously, the EU is building both a central and a macro-regional Baltic Sea-wide adaptation strategy to support national policy developments. However, it ...
DOI:
10.3390/su5010256

47. Potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum

Author:
Ralf Ohlemüller; Brian Huntley; Signe Normand; Jens‐Christian Svenning
Source:
Global ecology and biogeography 2012 v.21 no.2 pp. 152-163
ISSN:
1466-822X
Subject:
climate; climate change; highlands; phytogeography; plant ecology; refuge habitats; species diversity; Baltic Sea; Eastern European region; Scandinavia; Spain; Turkey (country); Western European region
Abstract:
... Aim To identify potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location Europe. Methods We developed a new approach combining past‐climate simulations with the concept of analogous climate space. Our index gives a continuous measure of the potential of a location to have acted as a source or a sink for species that have s ...
DOI:
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00674.x

48. Use case of biomass-based benthic invertebrate index for brackish waters in connection to climate and eutrophication

Author:
Velda Lauringson; Jonne Kotta; Priit Kersen; Ülle Leisk; Helen Orav-Kotta; Ilmar Kotta
Source:
Ecological indicators 2012 v.12 no.1 pp. 123-132
ISSN:
1470-160X
Subject:
anthropogenic activities; climate; climate change; coastal water; eutrophication; geomorphology; invertebrates; water quality; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... Biological water quality indices are increasingly used for coastal water quality assessment. It is not clear, how are anthropogenic disturbances and climate variability captured in the dynamics of different indices. In this study, we evaluate simultaneous contributions of both eutrophication- and climate-related factors to the variability of a benthic invertebrate index ZKI. The index is adopted t ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.04.009

49. Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

Author:
Thomas Neumann; Kari Eilola; Bo Gustafsson; Bärbel Müller-Karulis; Ivan Kuznetsov; H. E. Markus Meier; Oleg P. Savchuk
Source:
Ambio 2012 v.41 no.6 pp. 574-585
ISSN:
0044-7447
Subject:
climate; climate change; climate models; ecosystems; oxygen; pollution load; temperature; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study ...
DOI:
10.1007/s13280-012-0321-2
PubMed:
22926880
PubMed Central:
PMC3428485

50. Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099

Author:
H. E. M. Meier; R. Hordoir; H. C. Andersson; C. Dieterich; K. Eilola; B. G. Gustafsson; A. Höglund; S. Schimanke
Source:
Climate dynamics 2012 v.39 no.9-10 pp. 2421-2441
ISSN:
0930-7575
Subject:
biogeochemistry; climate; climate change; ecosystems; models; oxygen; phytoplankton; pollution load; rivers; sediments; water temperature; watersheds; Baltic Sea
Abstract:
... The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961–2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic busines ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00382-012-1339-7