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1. Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up

Author:
Tobías, Aurelio
Source:
The Science of the total environment 2020 v.725 pp. 138539
ISSN:
0048-9697
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; models; Italy; Spain;     Show all 4 Subjects
Abstract:
... From the end of February, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Spain has been following the footsteps of that in Italy very closely. We have analyzed the trends of incident cases, deaths, and intensive care unit admissions (ICU) in both countries before and after their respective national lockdowns using an interrupted time-series design. Data was analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression using an interaction ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138539
PubMed:
32304973
PubMed Central:
PMC7195141

2. A 60-year chronology of glacier surges in the central Karakoram from the analysis of satellite image time-series

Author:
Paul, Frank
Source:
Geomorphology 2020 v.352 pp. 106993
ISSN:
0169-555X
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; glaciers; remote sensing;     Show all 3 Subjects
Abstract:
... The glaciers in the Karakoram have recently been studied intensely using satellite data. The related studies investigated a large variety of characteristics (e.g. short and long-term variability in flow velocities, elevation changes and extent) and revealed a behaviour that differs largely from most other regions of the world (e.g. advancing or stable termini and balanced to positive mass budgets ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106993

3. Multifractional Brownian motion and quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization for short term power load forecasting: An integrated approach

Author:
Song, Wanqing; Cattani, Carlo; Chi, Chi-Hung
Source:
Energy 2020 v.194 pp. 116847
ISSN:
0360-5442
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; algorithms; models; stochastic processes;     Show all 4 Subjects
Abstract:
... Power load fluctuation is generally agreed to be a non-stationary stochastic process. The Fractional Brownian Motion (FBM) model is proposed to forecast a non-stationary time series with high accuracy. Computation of the Hurst exponent (H) for the power load data series using the Rescaled Range Analysis (R/S) in this study. This method is used to verify the Long-Range Dependent (LRD) characteristi ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.energy.2019.116847

4. Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”

Author:
Kreibich, Heidi; Blauhut, Veit; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.; Mejia, Alfonso; Mens, Marjolein; Van Loon, Anne F.
Source:
Hydrological sciences journal 2020 v.65 no.3 pp. 491-494
ISSN:
2150-3435
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; drought; models; risk;     Show all 4 Subjects
Abstract:
... We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to fost ...
DOI:
10.1080/02626667.2019.1701194

5. Stochastic finite-fault method controlled by the fault rupture process

Author:
Zhou, Hong; Chang, Ying
Source:
MethodsX 2020 v.7 pp. 100798
ISSN:
2215-0161
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; earthquakes; mathematics; China;     Show all 4 Subjects
Abstract:
... We present an improved stochastic finite-fault method controlled by the fault rupture process (NNSIM) which can make the simulated strong ground motion at a broad frequency band similar to real ground motion of the Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake by introducing the fault physical rupture process into the stochastic finite-fault method. Two obvious improvements are obtained: 1) the non-uniform time window ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.mex.2020.100798
PubMed:
32123670
PubMed Central:
PMC7038470

6. Multiscale clustering of nonparametric regression curves

Author:
Vogt, Michael; Linton, Oliver
Source:
Journal of econometrics 2020 v.216 no.1 pp. 305-325
ISSN:
0304-4076
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; econometric models; economic analysis; economic theory; equations;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... In a wide range of modern applications, one observes a large number of time series rather than only a single one. It is often natural to suppose that there is some group structure in the observed time series. When each time series is modeled by a nonparametric regression equation, one may in particular assume that the observed time series can be partitioned into a small number of groups whose memb ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.01.020

7. Robust causality test of infinite variance processes

Author:
Akashi, Fumiya; Taniguchi, Masanobu; Monti, Anna Clara
Source:
Journal of econometrics 2020 v.216 no.1 pp. 235-245
ISSN:
0304-4076
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; econometric models; economic analysis; economic theory; variance;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... This paper develops a robust causality test for time series with infinite variance innovation processes. First, we introduce a measure of dependence for vector nonparametric linear processes, and derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic by Taniguchi et al. (1996) in the infinite variance case. Second, we construct a weighted version of the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) tes ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.01.016

8. The Importance of Horizontal Rolls in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Author:
Sukhanovskii, A.; Popova, E.
Source:
Boundary-layer meteorology 2020 v.175 no.2 pp. 259-276
ISSN:
0006-8314
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; heat transfer; hurricanes; temperature; theoretical models;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... The present laboratory study is focused on the role of convective rolls in the enhancement of the heat flux from the sea and triggering of the process of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. The appearance of coherent convective structures such as thermals and rolls is registered by different optical techniques and temperature measurements. Two-dimensional velocity fields are used for the i ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10546-020-00503-2

9. Threshold factor models for high-dimensional time series

Author:
Liu, Xialu; Chen, Rong
Source:
Journal of econometrics 2020 v.216 no.1 pp. 53-70
ISSN:
0304-4076
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; econometric models; economic analysis; economic theory;     Show all 4 Subjects
Abstract:
... We consider a threshold factor model for high-dimensional time series in which the dynamics of the time series is assumed to switch between different regimes according to the value of a threshold variable. This is an extension of threshold modeling to a high-dimensional time series setting under a factor structure. Specifically, within each threshold regime, the time series is assumed to follow a ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.01.005

10. Expected output calculation based on inverse distance weighting and its application in anomaly detection of distributed photovoltaic power stations

Author:
Shi, Yucheng; He, Weiguo; Zhao, Jian; Hu, Aoyu; Pan, Jingna; Wang, Haizheng; Zhu, Honglu
Source:
Journal of cleaner production 2020 v.253 pp. 119965
ISSN:
0959-6526
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; algorithms; meteorological data; power plants; solar energy;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... With the increasing installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic generation, the anomaly detection is of great significance for the safe operation of distributed photovoltaic stations. Due to the lack of weather station, meteorological data based assessment and fault diagnosis methods are not applicable. To solve the problem, this paper proposes an expected output calculation and anomaly detecti ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.119965

11. A Novel Approach to Assess the Complexity of Contaminant Plume Transportation in the Aquifer Based on Hausdorff Fractal Dimension

Author:
Chen, Ge; Sun, Yajun; Xu, Zhimin
Source:
Water, air, and soil pollution 2020 v.231 no.4 pp. 145
ISSN:
0049-6979
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; aquifers; fractal dimensions; models; solutes;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... Fractal geometry is widely applied in the process description of contaminant transport, but few studies quantify the complexity of contaminant plume in the time series. Although the required accuracy is outside the scope of existent characterization methods, the model of solute transport remains the most sensitive issue for researchers due to its fractal behaviour. In this paper, a synthetic model ...
DOI:
10.1007/s11270-020-04527-9

12. The Role of Institutions in the Renewable Energy-Growth Nexus in the MENA Region: a Panel Cointegration Approach

Author:
Saidi, Hichem; El Montasser, Ghassen; Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen
Source:
Environmental modeling and assessment 2020 v.25 no.2 pp. 259-276
ISSN:
1420-2026
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; accountability; economic development; profitability; renewable energy sources;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... Institutional quality plays an undeniable role in every goal of accelerating economic growth. While the MENA region offers many natural assets that can make investments in renewable energy profitable, this region suffers from several institutional quality issues. In this line of thinking, this paper examines the relationship between renewable energy and economic growth in MENA countries taking int ...
DOI:
10.1007/s10666-019-09672-y

13. Adapted Receptive Field Temporal Convolutional Networks with Bar-Shaped Structures Tailored to Industrial Process Operation Models

Author:
Wang, Yongjian; Zhang, Yichi; Li, Hongguang
Source:
Industrial & engineering chemistry process design and development 2020 v.59 no.13 pp. 5482-5490
ISSN:
1520-5045
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; algorithms; chemistry; neural networks; prediction; process design;     Show all 6 Subjects
Abstract:
... Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been predominately employed to deal with industrial process operation modeling problems that are hard to be described by first-principles approaches. However, the substantial amount of iterative calculations in RNNs dramatically increases the training difficulty and reduces the speed of the network convergence. Thus, RNNs are an increasingly ineffective method ...
DOI:
10.1021/acs.iecr.9b06412

14. Improved change monitoring using an ensemble of time series algorithms

Author:
Bullock, Eric L.; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Holden, Christopher E.
Source:
Remote sensing of environment 2020 v.238 pp. 111165
ISSN:
0034-4257
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; Landsat; algorithms; monitoring; remote sensing; United States;     Show all 6 Subjects
Abstract:
... An ensemble of time series algorithms improves land change monitoring. The methodology combines the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC; Zhu & Woodcock, 2014) and Cumulative Sum of Residuals (CUSUM) algorithms for break detection and the Chow Test (Chow, 1960) for removing false positives (or breaks in time series not representing land change). The algorithms included are based on ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.rse.2019.04.018

15. Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan

Author:
Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ahmed, Kamal; Wang, Xiaojun; Ali, Rawshan; Ismail, Tarmizi; Nawaz, Nadeem
Source:
Atmospheric research 2020 v.233 pp. 104688
ISSN:
0169-8095
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; General Circulation Models; coasts; heat; temperature; Pakistan;     Show all 6 Subjects
Abstract:
... Performance of 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was assessed according to their ability to reconstruct the different properties of heat waves (HWs); HW frequency, HW duration and HW index estimated using Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) daily temperature data for the period 1961 to 2005 in order to generate an ensemble for t ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104688

16. Change point detection of flood events using a functional data framework

Author:
Alaya, Mohamed Ali Ben; Ternynck, Camille; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B.M.J.
Source:
Advances in water resources 2020 v.137 pp. 103522
ISSN:
0309-1708
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; case studies; hydrology; water resources; watersheds; Quebec;     Show all 6 Subjects
Abstract:
... Change point detection methods have an important role in many hydrological and hydraulic studies of river basins. These methods are very useful to characterize changes in hydrological regimes and can, therefore, lead to better understanding changes in extreme flows behavior. Flood events are generally characterized by a finite number of characteristics that may not include the entire information a ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103522

17. Does modeling a structural break improve forecast accuracy?

Author:
Boot, Tom; Pick, Andreas
Source:
Journal of econometrics 2020 v.215 no.1 pp. 35-59
ISSN:
0304-4076
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; econometric models; economic analysis; economic theory; macroeconomics;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... Mean square forecast error loss implies a bias–variance trade-off that suggests that structural breaks of small magnitude should be ignored. In this paper, we provide a test to determine whether modeling a structural break improves forecast accuracy. The test is near optimal even when the date of a local-to-zero break is not consistently estimable. The results extend to forecast combinations that ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.07.007

18. Mirror patterns of physical variables in the ocean

Author:
Wang, Gang; Qiao, Fangli
Source:
Climate dynamics 2020 v.54 no.5-6 pp. 3109-3120
ISSN:
0930-7575
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; climate; latitude; oceans; salinity; seawater; temperature; thermodynamics;     Show all 8 Subjects
Abstract:
... Temperature and salinity are independent thermodynamic variables of seawater. However, it was determined from monthly Argo data that the correlation coefficient between layer-averaged temperature and salinity (T–S) time series peaks at a depth of approximately 300 m. Meanwhile, T–S patterns around that depth are consistent. Therefore, this layer is named “T–S mirror layer”. Since the major feature ...
DOI:
10.1007/s00382-020-05161-1

19. Observations of Restratification after a Wind Mixing Event in a Shallow Highly Stratified Estuary

Author:
Coogan, Jeff; Dzwonkowski, Brian; Park, Kyeong; Webb, Bret
Source:
Estuaries and coasts 2020 v.43 no.2 pp. 272-285
ISSN:
1559-2723
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; estuaries; models; turbulent flow; wind;     Show all 5 Subjects
Abstract:
... In stratified estuaries susceptible to wind mixing events, the changes in stratification have important implications for estuarine dynamics. Understanding the timescale associated with these mixing events and indirect wind impacts is dependent on estimating the restratification timescale. Bay-wide stratification observations, turbulence time series, and long-term data were examined to quantify the ...
DOI:
10.1007/s12237-019-00689-w

20. Superficial oscillation as an identifier of phenomena governing dynamics of solid–gas fluidized systems

Author:
Guardiola, J.; Elvira, R.; Briongos, J.V.
Source:
Powder technology 2020 v.362 pp. 770-780
ISSN:
0032-5910
Subject:
time series analysis,   etc   ; bubbles; entropy; fluidized beds; hydrodynamics; video cameras;     Show all 6 Subjects
Abstract:
... The evolution of the volume of a fluidized bed solid–gas over time is measured by the oscillation of its surface. It is assumed that the system is governed by the pressure gradient between the plenum and the surface; the latter is considered as the reference.The surface oscillation is measured with a laterally located CCD video camera such that it monitors the flattest portion of the surface and r ...
DOI:
10.1016/j.powtec.2019.12.009