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Monthly stream flow forecasting via dynamic spatio-temporal models

Dehghani, Majid, Saghafian, Bahram, Rivaz, Firoozeh, Khodadadi, Ahmad
Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2015 v.29 no.3 pp. 861-874
algorithms, drought, dynamic models, stream flow
In this research, a dynamic linear spatio-temporal model (DLSTM) was developed and evaluated for monthly streamflow forecasting. For parameter estimation, coupled expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm and Kalman filter was adopted. This combination enables the model to estimate the state vector and parameters concurrently. Different forecast scenarios including various combinations of upstream stations were considered for downstream station streamflow forecasting. Several statistical criteria, nonparametric and visual tests were used for model evaluation. Results indicated that the spatio-temporal model performed acceptably in almost all scenarios. The dynamic model was able to capitalize on coupled spatial and temporal information provided that there is spatial connectivity in the studied hydrometric stations network. Moreover, threshold level method was used for model evaluation in drought and wet periods. Results indicated that, in validation phase, the model was able to forecast the drought duration and volume deficit/over threshold, although volume deficit/over threshold could not be accurately simulated.