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Real-time correction of water stage forecast during rainstorm events using combination of forecast errors

Wu, Shiang-Jen, Lien, Ho-Cheng, Chang, Che-Hao, Shen, Jhih-Cyuan
Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2012 v.26 no.4 pp. 519-531
gauges, hydrology, model validation, models, rivers, time series analysis, typhoons, Taiwan
This study proposes a real-time error correction method for the forecasted water stage using a combination of forecast errors estimated by the time series models, AR(1), AR(2), MA(1) and MA(2), and the average deviation model to update the water stage forecast during rainstorm events. During flood forecasting and warning operations, the proposed real-time error correction method takes advantage of being individually and continuously implemented and the results not being updated to the hydrological model and hydraulic routings so as to save computational time by recalibrating the parameters of the proposed methods with real-time observation. For model validation, the current study adopts the observed and forecasted data on a severe typhoon, Morakot, collected at eight water level gauges in Southern Taiwan and provided by the flood forecast system FEWS_Taiwan, which is linked with the reliable quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at 3 h of lead time provided by the Center Weather Bureau in Taiwan, as the model validation. The results of numerical experiments indicate that the proposed real-time error correction method can effectively reduce the errors of forecasted water stages at the 1-, 2-, and 3-h lead time and so enhance the reliability of forecast information issued by the FEWS_Taiwan. By means of real-time estimating potential forecast error, the uncertainties in hydrology, modules as well as associated parameters, and physiographical features of the river can be reduced.