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Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics

Author:
Pitzer, Virginia E., Viboud, Cécile, Simonsen, Lone, Steiner, Claudia, Panozzo, Catherine A., Alonso, Wladimir J., Miller, Mark A., Glass, Roger I., Glasser, John W., Parashar, Umesh D., Grenfell, Bryan T.
Source:
Science 2009 v.325 no.5938 pp. 290-294
ISSN:
0036-8075
Subject:
Rotavirus, autumn, birth rate, disease outbreaks, models, spatial variation, temporal variation, vaccination, United States
Abstract:
Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.
Agid:
2191052