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The 2010 Amazon Drought
- Lewis, Simon L., Brando, Paulo M., Phillips, Oliver L., van der Heijden, Geertje M.F., Nepstad, Daniel
- Science 2011 v.331 no.6017 pp. 554
- biomass, carbon, confidence interval, drought, dry season, drying, emissions, forests, meteorological data, rain, statistical analysis, tree mortality, Amazonia
- In 2010, dry-season rainfall was low across Amazonia, with apparent similarities to the major 2005 drought. We analyzed a decade of satellite-derived rainfall data to compare both events. Standardized anomalies of dry-season rainfall showed that 57% of Amazonia had low rainfall in 2010 as compared with 37% in 2005 ([less-than or equal to]-1 standard deviation from long-term mean). By using relationships between drying and forest biomass responses measured for 2005, we predict the impact of the 2010 drought as 2.2 x 10¹⁵ grams of carbon [95% confidence intervals (CIs) are 1.2 and 3.4], largely longer-term committed emissions from drought-induced tree deaths, compared with 1.6 x10¹⁵ grams of carbon (CIs 0.8 and 2.6) for the 2005 event.