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A Computer Model for Simulating Population Development of the Indianmeal Moth (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Stored Corn

Throne, James E., Arbogast, Richard T.
Journal of economic entomology 2010 v.103 no.4 pp. 1503
life cycle (organisms), storage insects, Plodia interpunctella, population growth, food storage, storage time, prediction, simulation models, computer software, developmental stages, fecundity, longevity, viability, seasonal variation, ambient temperature, winter, population dynamics, probabilistic models, South Carolina
The Indianmeal moth, Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), is a common pest of stored corn, Zea mays L. We developed a computer model to simulate population development of the Indianmeal moth in stored corn by using previously published data describing immature developmental times and survivorship, and adult longevity and fecundity. The model accurately simulated population development of Indianmeal moths in corn stored during fall and into winter of three separate storage seasons in South Carolina. This is the period when the Indianmeal moth is a pest in stored corn in South Carolina. The model predicted that populations would increase after winter as grain temperatures rose, but observed populations in the grain bins never increased after winter. Despite this, the model should be useful from a management perspective because the corn is being sold off or used up after winter, and the observed Indianmeal moth populations never reached damaging levels after winter.