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A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for air quality management under uncertainty

Lv, Y., Huang, G.H., Li, Y.P., Yang, Z.F., Sun, W.
Journal of environmental management 2011 v.92 no.3 pp. 813-826
air pollution, air quality, case studies, management systems, models, planning, pollutants, pollution control, probability distribution, risk, uncertainty
A two-stage inexact joint-probabilistic programming (TIJP) method is developed for planning a regional air quality management system with multiple pollutants and multiple sources. The TIJP method incorporates the techniques of two-stage stochastic programming, joint-probabilistic constraint programming and interval mathematical programming, where uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values can be addressed. Moreover, it can not only examine the risk of violating joint-probability constraints, but also account for economic penalties as corrective measures against any infeasibility. The developed TIJP method is applied to a case study of a regional air pollution control problem, where the air quality index (AQI) is introduced for evaluation of the integrated air quality management system associated with multiple pollutants. The joint-probability exists in the environmental constraints for AQI, such that individual probabilistic constraints for each pollutant can be efficiently incorporated within the TIJP model. The results indicate that useful solutions for air quality management practices have been generated; they can help decision makers to identify desired pollution abatement strategies with minimized system cost and maximized environmental efficiency.