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Predictability in dice motion: how does it differ from hydro-meteorological processes?

Author:
Dimitriadis, Panayiotis, Koutsoyiannis, Demetris, Tzouka, Katerina
Source:
Hydrological sciences journal 2016 v.61 no.9 pp. 1611-1622
ISSN:
2150-3435
Subject:
hydrometeorology, models, rain, rain intensity, stochastic processes, time series analysis, wind speed
Abstract:
From ancient times dice have been used to denote randomness. A dice throw experiment is set up in order to examine the predictability of the die orientation through time using visualization techniques. We apply and compare a deterministic-chaotic model and a stochastic model and we show that both suggest predictability in die motion that deteriorates with time, just as in hydro-meteorological processes. Namely, a die’s trajectory can be predictable for short horizons and unpredictable for long ones. Furthermore, we show that the same models can be applied, with satisfactory results, to high temporal resolution time series of rainfall intensity and wind speed magnitude, occurring during mild and strong weather conditions. The difference among the experimental and two natural processes is in the time length of the high-predictability window, which is of the order of 0.1 s, 10 min and 1 h for dice, rainfall and wind processes, respectively.
Agid:
5243200