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Risk analysis for seasonal flood-limited water level under uncertainties

Zhou, Yanlai, Guo, Shenglian, Xu, Jijun, Zhao, Xiaofeng, Zhai, Lini
Journal of hydro-environment research 2015 v.9 no.4 pp. 569-581
Monte Carlo method, acceptable risk, case studies, flood control, floods, models, risk analysis, uncertainty, uncertainty analysis, water utilization, China
For floodwater utilization, seasonal flood-limited water level (FLWL) plays a more and more role in compromising between flood control and beneficial use in reservoir operation during flood season. The prerequisite of determining a seasonal FLWL is that flood control risks should not be increased in reservoir operation as compared with the original operating rule using a fixed FLWL. In this paper, a risk analysis model for deriving seasonal FLWL that considers uncertainties of hydrology, hydraulic condition and reservoir volume is proposed and developed. The risk analysis model consists of three modules: the first is a hydrological uncertainty analysis module, the second is a hydraulic uncertainty analysis module, as well as the third is a reservoir volume uncertainty analysis module. The acceptable risk constraints are given, and the upper limitation of seasonal FLWL is estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation. The China’ Wanjiazhai reservoir (WR) is selected as a case study. The application results show that (1) the hydrological uncertainty and the reservoir volume uncertainty are major contribution factors to seasonal FLWL while the discharge capacity uncertainty is inapparent influence of seasonal FLWL, (2) the most reasonable upper limitations of seasonal FLWL in WR during main-flood and post-flood seasons are 972.3 and 974.1 m, respectively, which considers hydrological uncertainty, minimum hydraulic capability and minimum reservoir volume. The relative magnitudes of seasonal FLWL and the flood water utilization rates during main-flood and post-flood seasons are 0.65% and 61.05%, as well as 0.84% and 81.60%, respectively. Seasonal FLWL can effectively enhance flood water utilization rate without lowering the annual flood control standard compared with annual FLWL.