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Prediction of abundance of beetles according to climate warming in South Korea
- Kwon, Tae-Sung, Lee, Cheol Min, Kim, Sung-Soo
- Journal of Asia-Pacific biodiversity(Online) 2015 v.8 no.1 pp. 7-30
- Coleoptera, biodiversity, climate, forests, global warming, insects, normal distribution, prediction, surveys, temperature profiles, South Korea
- To identify the change in distribution of insects in climate warming, changes in abundance of beetles were predicted using data from 366 survey sites (forests) in South Korea. Abundance along temperature gradients showed patterns (linear or hump-shaped) of normal distribution for 18 candidate species. Mean abundance in temperature zones of these species was used to predict the change in abundance. Temperature change was based on climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and abundance of the two periods from 2011 to 2015 and 2056 to 2065 were predicted. Of the 18 species analyzed, six were predicted to increase in abundance and 12 were predicted to decrease. Using a high relationship between abundance change and temperature of collected sites, a qualitative prediction was conducted on non-candidate species with ≥ 1% occurrence. This prediction also shows that more beetle species in South Korea will decrease rather than increase as climate warms.