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Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

Frank, Stefan, Böttcher, Hannes, Gusti, Mykola, Havlík, Petr, Klaassen, Ger, Kindermann, Georg, Obersteiner, Michael
Climatic change 2016 v.138 no.1-2 pp. 253-266
European Union, biomass, climate, climate change, energy, energy conservation, energy crops, energy policy, forest management, forests, greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gases, land use change, models, renewable energy sources, Europe
A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.