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The analysis of trend variations of reference evapotranspiration via eliminating the significance effect of all autocorrelation coefficients
- Amirataee, Babak, Montaseri, Majid, Sanikhani, Hadi
- Theoretical and applied climatology 2016 v.126 no.1-2 pp. 131-139
- autocorrelation, climate change, evapotranspiration, planning, water management, watersheds, Iran
- Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is considered a key parameter for evaluating the climatic changes as well as spatial and temporal patterns of parameters influencing the eco-hydrological processes. The analysis of trend variations of this index can be used to determine appropriate strategies in planning and management of water resources. In this paper, the trend variations of monthly and annual ET₀ in Urmia Lake basin, located in the northwest of Iran, have been analyzed using data from 14 synoptic stations in the study area. Regarding the significant effect of autocorrelation coefficients with different lags on trend variations of ET₀, this paper has resorted to modified Mann–Kendall test via eliminating the significance effect of autocorrelation coefficients with different lags to analyze the trend variations. Furthermore, Theil–Sen estimator has been used to determine the slope of trend line of ET₀. The results indicated an increasing trend in ET₀ values at all the studied stations. Having used the modified Mann–Kendall test, the values of significant increasing (positive) trend, which were estimated using common Mann–Kendall test, dramatically decreased. As such, the values of only 7 stations have been significant at 95 % level. The results confirmed the need for eliminating the significance effect of autocorrelation coefficients with different lags to determine and evaluate the trend of hydrological variables.