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The use of predictive models to optimize risk of decisions

Author:
Baranyi, József, Buss da Silva, Nathália
Source:
International journal of food microbiology 2017 v.240 pp. 19-23
ISSN:
0168-1605
Subject:
decision making, decision support systems, food microbiology, mathematical theory, models, risk, risk assessors, uncertainty
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to set up a mathematical framework that risk assessors and regulators could use to quantify the “riskiness” of a particular recommendation (choice/decision). The mathematical theory introduced here can be used for decision support systems. We point out that efficient use of predictive models in decision making for food microbiology needs to consider three major points: (1) the uncertainty and variability of the used information based on which the decision is to be made; (2) the validity of the predictive models aiding the assessor; and (3) the cost generated by the difference between the a-priory choice and the a-posteriori outcome.
Agid:
5570113