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Explicating behavioral assumptions in forest scenario modelling – the behavioral matrix approach

Author:
Trubins, Renats, Jonsson, Ragnar, Wallin, Ida, Sallnäs, Ola
Source:
Forest policy and economics 2019 v.103 pp. 70-78
ISSN:
1389-9341
Subject:
case studies, decision support systems, experts, forest management, forest policy, forests, landscapes, models, Sweden
Abstract:
Forest landscapes are too complex systems for the actors involved in policy making, including experts, to predict the consequences of different management options and policy measures without the aid of modelling tools. Forest sector models and forest management Decision Support Systems (DSS) are two major types of modelling tools that can be used for providing model-based support to forest policy development. Regardless of the modelling tool, policy makers and other concerned actors need to be aware of the behavioral assumptions, or implications, of a scenario in order to proceed to an assessment of what it takes to achieve, alternatively avoid it. A unified method or even a unified understanding of this problem is as yet lacking among forest scenario analysts. This paper presents an approach to facilitate the definition and communication of behavioral assumptions, primarily in DSS-based forest scenario modelling. At the core of the approach is the Behavioral Matrix (BM), a way of structuring forest management specifications. A case study in southern Sweden is presented as an example.
Agid:
5735038