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Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios
- Mu, Jianhong E., Sleeter, Benjamin M., Abatzoglou, John T., Antle, John M.
- Climatic change 2017 v.144 no.2 pp. 329-345
- climate, climate change, crop production, cropland, econometric models, heat sums, land use change, livestock, livestock production, pastures, socioeconomics, United States
- We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production and the resulting impact on land-use change across the contiguous USA. We first estimate an econometric model to project effects of weather fluctuations on crop and livestock net returns and then use a semi-reduced form land-use share model to study agricultural land-use changes under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that crop net returns are more sensitive to thermal and less sensitive to moisture variability than livestock net returns; other agricultural land uses substitute cropland use when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation are not beneficial for crop production. Under future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we project that crop and livestock net returns are both increasing, but with crop net returns increasing at a higher rate; cropland increases with declines of marginal and pastureland by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections also show that impacts of future climate on agricultural land uses are substantially different and a larger variation of land-use change is evident when socio-economic scenarios are incorporated into the climate impact analysis.