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Performance Assessment of the Linear, Nonlinear and Nonparametric Data Driven Models in River Flow Forecasting

Ahani, Ali, Shourian, Mojtaba, Rahimi Rad, Peiman
Water resources management 2018 v.32 no.2 pp. 383-399
correlation, data collection, neural networks, regression analysis, rivers, runoff
In recent years, the data-driven modeling techniques have gained more attention in hydrology and water resources studies. River runoff estimation and forecasting are one of the research fields that these techniques have several applications in them. In the current study, four common data-driven modeling techniques including multiple linear regression, K-nearest neighbors, artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems have been used to form runoff forecasting models and then their results have been evaluated. Also, effects of using of some different scenarios for selecting predictor variables have been studied. It is evident from the results that using flow data of one or two month ago in the predictor variables dataset can improve accuracy of results. In addition, comparison of general performances of the modeling techniques shows superiority of results of KNN models among the studied models. Among selected models of the different techniques, the selected KNN model presented best performance with a linear correlation coefficient equal to 0.84 between observed flow data and predicted values and a RMSE equal to 2.64.