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Transferability of Conceptual Hydrological Models Across Temporal Resolutions: Approach and Application

Jie, Meng-Xuan, Chen, Hua, Xu, Chong-Yu, Zeng, Qiang, Chen, Jie, Kim, Jong-Suk, Guo, Sheng-lian, Guo, Fu-Qiang
Water resources management 2018 v.32 no.4 pp. 1367-1381
Bayesian theory, algorithms, equations, hydrologic models, model validation, prediction, runoff, simulation models, uncertainty
The temporal resolution of observed data is a critical element in determining the parameters, prediction performance, and applicability of hydrological models. In this study, runoff simulations were performed at different temporal resolutions using the Xinanjiang model to evaluate the influence of temporal resolution on the model parameters and performance. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters, the posterior distribution of the sensitive parameters was derived using the Bayesian method and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm at different temporal resolutions. The transformation functions of the model parameters were put forward to transform the parameters according to the regulatory between the parameters and time-steps on the basis of the parameters posterior distribution. The model performance and uncertainty for runoff simulation were compared and discussed at each temporal resolution. The results show that (1) the parameters related with the process of the water balance and runoff routing are identified as sensitive to the temporal resolutions, and there exist linear or power function relationships between parameter values at different temporal resolutions; and (2) the quantitative relationship equations have been verified to have good capacity for model simulation when the model parameters are transformed from other temporal resolution.