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Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics

Wang, Xiao-Jun, Zhang, Jian-Yun, Shahid, Shamsuddin, Xie, Wei, Du, Chao-Yang, Shang, Xiao-Chuan, Zhang, Xu
Environment, development and sustainability 2018 v.20 no.2 pp. 911-924
General Circulation Models, basins, climate change, lifestyle, population growth, rivers, statistical models, temperature, urbanization, water shortages, watershed hydrology, watersheds, China
A statistical model has been developed to forecast domestic water demand by considering climate change, population growth, urbanization, lifestyle changes and technological advances. The developed model is used to forecast future domestic water demand in different sub-basins of Huaihe River Basin of China. The study reveals that mean temperature in Huaihe River Basin will increase by 0.7–1.6 °C, population will reach to 230 million, and 61.2% of the basin area will be urbanized by the year 2030, which will cause a sharp increase in domestic water demand. The increase in domestic water demand for 1 °C increase in mean temperature is found to vary between 0.549 × 10⁸ and 5.759 × 10⁸ m³ for different sub-basins of Huaihe River. The forecasted change in domestic water demand is also found to vary widely for different general circulation models (GCMs) used. The GCM BCC-CSM1-1 projected the highest increase in domestic water demand, 168.44 × 10⁸ m³ in 2020, and the GISS-E2-R the lowest, 119.21 × 10⁸ m³. On the other hand, the BNU-ESM projected the highest increase, 196.03 × 10⁸ m³, and the CNRM-CM5 the lowest, 161.05 × 10⁸ m³ in year 2030. Among the different sub-basins, the highest increase in water demand is projected in Middlestream of Huaihe River in the range of 46.9 × 10⁸–65.5 × 10⁸ m³ in 2020, and 61.3 × 10⁸–76.1 × 10⁸ m³ in 2030, which is supposed to cause serious water shortage and an increase in competition among water-using sectors.