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Combined cooling, heat and power planning under uncertainty

Author:
Ersoz, Ibrahim, Colak, Uner
Source:
Energy 2016 v.109 pp. 1016-1025
ISSN:
0360-5442
Subject:
cooling, decision making, economic analysis, heat, normal distribution, planning, risk, uncertainty
Abstract:
The main purpose of this study is to derive a methodology for the analysis to determine the best CCHP (Combined Cooling Heat and Power) scheme in the presence of uncertainties differently from deterministic method. The proposed methodology helps decision makers see all the possible risks that impact the amortization of the system. Decisions for investments are generally taken by the conventional method, which relies on the result of an economic analysis with the assumption that variables will remain stable at the time the analysis is made. Nevertheless, CCHP systems by their nature work under uncertainties during their economic life. The proposed method has been tested with a representative case in this article. All the variables that affect the feasibility of the investment have been simulated with the non-parametric technique with the assumption that all the variables change as per normal distribution. In addition, the impact of the variables on the objective function has been assessed with the local method of sensitivity analysis. In the light of these results, this study contributes to decision makers during the CCHP planning by providing a different point of view at the stage of design and economic analysis for systems with uncertainties.
Agid:
5918559