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Application of fuzzy updating algorithm for real-time forecast
- Pulukuri, Shirisha, Keesara, Venkata Reddy, Deva, Pratap
- ISH journal of hydraulic engineering 2018 v.24 no.2 pp. 213-221
- algorithms, fuzzy logic, hydrologic models, runoff, watersheds, India
- Fuzzy logic technique is widely used in hydrology for handling complex and incomplete data. Accurate forecast with sufficient lead-time can be obtained by fuzzy logic technique. A fuzzy autoregressive updating model is proposed as error-forecast updating model. Kinematic Wave-Finite Element (KW-FEM)-based distributed rainfall–runoff model is selected to forecast the observed discharge on the watersheds. The proposed model is applied on Khadakohol and Banha watersheds in India. Coefficient of efficiency increased from 0.81 to 0.87, error in peak discharge decreased and error in time to peak discharge decreased from 0.5 to 0 h using the updating model. Real-time flow forecast accuracy is higher in updating model than in non-updating model.