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Long-range dependence in the runoff time series of the most important Patagonian river draining to the Pacific Ocean

Montes, Rodrigo M., Quiñones, Renato A.
New Zealand journal of marine and freshwater research 2018 v.52 no.2 pp. 264-283
lakes, rivers, runoff, time series analysis, watersheds, Antarctic region, Chile, Pacific Ocean
The Baker River is the largest free-flowing river in Chilean Patagonia. Long-range dependence (LRD), a recognised hydrological property of river runoff worldwide, was detected for the Baker River runoff time series. Analyses were conducted on a monthly scale between 1961 and 2015 using the fractal and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis methodology. A long-range-dependent Hurst coefficient (H) equal to 0.94 was obtained. A scaling range, which is the signature of LRD, was detected for the Baker River runoff time series between 1 and 5.25 years. Baker River runoff showed a strong correlation (r = 0.96) with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) Index during the 2007–2015 period. The high storage capacity of Lake General Carrera, the size of the Baker River basin area and the dynamics of AAO are proposed as main factors that contribute to the emergence of LRD in the Baker River runoff time series.