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Association rule mining based quantitative analysis approach of household characteristics impacts on residential electricity consumption patterns

Wang, Fei, Li, Kangping, Duić, Neven, Mi, Zengqiang, Hodge, Bri-Mathias, Shafie-khah, Miadreza, Catalão, João P.S.
Energy conversion and management 2018 v.171 pp. 839-854
algorithms, artificial intelligence, attitudes and opinions, carbon dioxide, case studies, cooking, data analysis, electric energy consumption, electricity, employment, energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, households, models, quantitative analysis, surveys, Ireland
The comprehensive understanding of the residential electricity consumption patterns (ECPs) and how they relate to household characteristics can contribute to energy efficiency improvement and electricity consumption reduction in the residential sector. After recognizing the limitations of current studies (i.e. unreasonable typical ECP (TECP) extraction method and the problem of multicollinearity and interpretability for regression and machine learning models), this paper proposes an association rule mining based quantitative analysis approach of household characteristics impact on residential ECPs trying to address them together. First, an adaptive density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm is utilized to create seasonal TECP of each individual customer only for weekdays. K-means is then adopted to group all the TECPs into several clusters. An enhanced Apriori algorithm is proposed to reveal the relationships between TECPs and thirty five factors covering four categories of household characteristics including dwelling characteristics, socio-demographic, appliances and heating and attitudes towards energy. Results of the case study using 3326 records containing smart metering data and survey information in Ireland suggest that socio-demographic and cooking related factors such as employment status, occupants and whether cook by electricity have strong significant associations with TECPs, while attitudes related factors almost have no effect on TECPs. The results also indicate that those households with more than one person are more likely to change ECP across seasons. The proposed approach and the findings of this study can help to support decisions about how to reduce electricity consumption and CO2 emissions.