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Many-Objective Multi-Scenario Algorithm for Optimal Reservoir Operation Under Future Uncertainties

Karami, Farzane, Dariane, Alireza B.
Water resources management 2018 v.32 no.12 pp. 3887-3902
algorithms, case studies, climate, climate change, greenhouse gases, issues and policy, model validation, models, rain, stream flow, temperature, uncertainty, water power
An increase in greenhouse gases in future can exacerbate the climate change phenomenon and may have negative consequences on different elements of hydrologic system, including rainfall, temperature, and streamflow. Since the reservoir operation is highly dependent on the timing and magnitude of inflow, the impact of potential climate change on inflow sequences should be considered in deriving the system operation rule. Nevertheless, existing algorithms are only able to optimize the operation policy for a single predetermined climate scenario. Thus, the derived operation rule would not work well if the scenario changes. This paper proposes an algorithm which is able to handle simultaneously multiple scenarios in finding optimum system operation rule. Thus, it can overcome drawbacks caused by uncertainties in the occurrence of future scenarios. The proposed algorithm is used to optimize reservoir operation policy considering various climate change scenarios (RCPs). To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, a five-reservoir system within Tehran region with several objectives including municipal, agricultural, environmental, and hydropower demands is employed as the case study. Results show that in all cases the multi-scenario rule derived by the proposed method performs as good as the operation rule derived for any specific scenario using a powerful optimization algorithm when evaluated for that scenario. While, in all other models as the future scenario changes to the one other than that used in deriving the operation rule, the model performance declines as compared to the proposed model.