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Analysis of the goodness of empirical approaches in predicting explosive detonation parameters

Bastante, Fernando G., Alonso, Elena, Araújo, María, García Menéndez, Julio
Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2018 v.32 no.9 pp. 2605-2618
databases, empirical models, equations, explosives, oxygen, prediction
Goodness of empirical models for predicting explosive detonation velocity and pressure was analysed using 3 databases consisting of experimental velocity and pressure measurements for different explosives. The first database was used to estimate experimental errors for detonation velocity and pressure measurements. The second database was used to compare residuals obtained by the experimental models and by various thermochemical codes. Finally, the third database, consisting of some 600 data on 130 explosive substances, was used to estimate residual bias and dispersion resulting from the application of the experimental models. Also analysed was model coherence with the ideal detonation theory. Our main conclusion is that all the models introduce bias in their predictions depending on the density and oxygen balance values of the explosive. Of those analysed, the Xiong model was notable for its good results, with residual dispersion comparable to that obtained from application of the best thermochemical codes. Our results would indicate that the Xiong model is the only model that may be compatible with the ideal detonation theory. The pressure equation derived from the ideal detonation theory and calibrated with experimental data had excellent predictive capacity.