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Reliability-constrained hydropower valuation
- Ware, Antony
- Energy policy 2018 v.118 pp. 633-641
- dynamic programming, income, prices, risk, water power
- Maximizing the long-term value of hydropower generation requires management of uncertain reservoir inflows, potentially variable constraints on outflows, and exposure to possibly wildly varying power prices. We describe a stochastic dynamic programming approach to the quantification of reservoir reliability (for example, measures of the risk of over-topping the reservoir or failing to satisfy downstream flow requirements) and a related approach to determining the reservoir flow strategy that maximizes expected revenue, subject to defined target reliability levels.