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A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm
- Yang, Zhongshan, Wang, Jian
- Applied energy 2018 v.230 pp. 1108-1125
- algorithms, artificial intelligence, case studies, empirical research, hydrologic cycle, information processing, models, prediction, uncertainty, wind speed, China
- Owing to the complexity and uncertainty of wind speed, accurate wind speed prediction has become a highly anticipated and challenging problem in recent years. Researchers have conducted numerous studies on wind speed prediction theory and practice; however, research on multi-step wind speed prediction remains scarce, which hinders further development in this area. To improve upon the accuracy and stability of multi-step wind speed prediction, this paper proposes a combination model based on a data preprocessing strategy, an improved optimization model, a no negative constraint theory, and several single prediction models. To improve upon forecasting performance, an improved water cycle algorithm based on a quasi-Newton algorithm is proposed to optimize the weight coefficients of the single models. In the empirical research, 10-min and 30-min wind speed data from Shandong Province in China, collected for case studies, were used to assess the comprehensive performance of the proposed combination model. Finally, we used 10-fold cross-validation and multiple error criteria to evaluate the comprehensive performance of the proposed combination model. The simulation results indicate that (a) the quasi-Newton algorithm can effectively increase the diversity of the water cycle algorithm particles, resulting in improved water cycle algorithm optimization performance; (b) the combination model exhibits superior predictive performance to a single model by taking advantage of each single model; and (c) the proposed combination model can effectively improve multi-step wind speed prediction results.