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Carbon abatement in China's commercial building sector: A bottom-up measurement model based on Kaya-LMDI methods

Ma, Minda, Cai, Wei, Cai, Weiguang
Energy 2018 v.165 pp. 350-368
buildings, carbon, energy conservation, models, China
Measuring carbon abatement in China's commercial buildings (CACCB) has been recognized as a path to evaluate the energy conservation work (ECW) in China's commercial building sector. This study first presents a bottom-up model for measuring the CACCB values based on decomposing the extended Kaya identity via the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. The results indicate that (1) mainly three types of drivers (f, d, and K) contributed negatively to the carbon intensity of commercial buildings from 2000 to 2015, and the comprehensive effects were quantified as the intensity values of CACCB. The CACCB values in the three Five-Year Plan periods were 383.41 (2001–2005), 591.09 (2006–2010), and 621.54 MtCO2 (2011–2015). (2) A comparative analysis of the contribution rate elasticity of the drivers assessed by the LMDI method and ridge regression effectively examined the robustness of the CACCB measurement model. Meanwhile, the performance of the measurement model was also evaluated. (3) More significant CACCB effects observed in recent years can be attributed to significant improvements made in ECW. To sum up, we believe that our approach covers the research gap of CACCB measurement, and our efforts constitute significant guidance for developing future ECW in China's commercial building sector.