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Agricultural land conversion: Impacts of economic and natural risk factors in a coastal area

Author:
Li, Sheng, Nadolnyak, Denis, Hartarska, Valentina
Source:
Land use policy 2019 v.80 pp. 380-390
ISSN:
0264-8377
Subject:
agricultural land, coasts, disasters, economic indicators, land policy, land use change, models, risk factors, Florida
Abstract:
Agricultural land has undergone extensive conversion into residential and commercial uses vulnerable to coastal hazards and other natural disasters. We use interval censored survival models while controlling for endogeneity and spatial dependence to examine the dynamics of agricultural to urban land conversion using parcel-level data from Lee County in Southwest Florida over 1988-2008. The results suggest that flood risks slow down farmland conversion while locational attributes, proxies for farming profitability, and regional economic indicators have expected signs and magnitudes. Spatial model specification indicates positive contagion externalities in land conversion. These findings may be helpful in land use policy design.
Agid:
6196092