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Simulation based evolutionary algorithms for fuzzy chance-constrained biogas supply chain design

Khishtandar, Soheila
Applied energy 2019 v.236 pp. 183-195
Monte Carlo method, algorithms, biogas, biomass, case studies, labor force, nonlinear models, prices, supply chain, uncertainty, Iran
This study proposes a fuzzy chance-constrained programming model to include uncertainty in the biogas supply chain design problem. Uncertain parameters of the model are available workforce, biomass demand, available biomass and biomass price. A hybrid solution framework consisting of Monte Carlo simulation and evolutionary algorithms (genetic algorithm and differential evolution) is put forward to find the exact and near global optimal solution for the fuzzy chance-constrained model. The results of the test problems show that evolutionary algorithms can effectively solve the mixed integer nonlinear model of biogas location allocation within a reasonable computational time. Also, validation of the hybrid solution framework at different confidence levels is verified. The impacts of uncertainty in available biomass, biomass demand and available workforce on the overall cost of biogas supply chain are studied through sensitivity analysis. A real-world case study with real-life data available from the Province of Khorasan Razavi is performed. This is the first study that designs a biogas supply chain for a province of Iran.