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Development and application of a priority rated optimization model (PROM) for multi-sector water resource management systems

Dessu, Shimelis Behailu, Melesse, Assefa M., Bhat, Mahadev G., Price, Rene′ M., Seid, Abdulkarim H., Debebe, Senait A., McClain, Michael E.
Environmental modelling & software 2019 v.113 pp. 84-97
econometric models, ecosystems, management systems, stakeholders, water allocation, watersheds, Kenya, Tanzania
We present a new Priority Rated Optimization Model (PROM) for multi-sector water resource assessment, allocation and management. PROM utilizes flow duration curves (FDC), demand-to-supply ratio (DSR) and utility indices (UI) to evaluate and optimize priority based multi-sector water allocation. DSR links demand volume and priority with corresponding supply volume and likelihood derived from segmentation of FDC. The UI function assigns weights to ranges of DSR to assess the existing and potential alternative management scenarios. Supply reliability and UI values are used in a combinatorial optimization scheme to estimate allocated volume, flow rate and percent exceedance. PROM is applied in the Mara River Basin of Kenya/Tanzania, and results showed potential improvement over the current management practice towards sustainability of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. PROM bridges the gap between environmental and economic models while providing a user-friendly platform for direct stakeholder involvement to explore alternative water allocation scenarios.