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Uncertainty analysis of remediation cost and damaged land value for brownfield investment

Chen, I-Chun, Chuo, Yu-Yu, Ma, Hwong-wen
Chemosphere 2019 v.220 pp. 371-380
brownfields, confidence interval, cost analysis, factories, land management, land policy, land values, markets, remediation, risk, uncertainty, uncertainty analysis, Taiwan
Flexible land management that allows risk-based remediation approaches can increase local financial assistance in brownfield development investments. The evaluation of brownfields investment has always been mired in uncertainty because of the complexity of contamination and land policy. To clarify the uncertainty in investment costs resulting from a flexible risk-based land management, this research analyzes the uncertainty of remediation costs (Ir) and damaged land value (Ip). Sizable statistical data for 30,000 abandoned factories in Taiwan are used to derive the uncertainty of investment cost. The results show that the range and value of the uncertainty of Ip is more than Ir because the present land value and the change in flexible land management are the main sensitivity factors. The saved investment costs at the 90% confidence interval ranges five orders of magnitude. Moreover, investors could have saved approximately 5.74E+13 USD resulting from Ip and Ir. The study's two major findings with regard to investment risk in brownfield redevelopment are: (1) an explanation of the extent to which investment costs are to be reduced for investors by adjusting remediation goals depending on different land types; (2) characterization of the uncertainty of brownfields in the real investment market for brownfield redevelopment.