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Risk assessment using transfer learning for grassland fires

Liu, Xing-peng, Zhang, Guang-quan, Lu, Jie, Zhang, Ji-quan
Agricultural and forest meteorology 2019 v.269-270 pp. 102-111
climate, data collection, fuels, grassland fires, grasslands, humans, learning, prediction, risk, risk assessment, China
A new direction of risk assessment research in grassland fire management is data-driven prediction, in which data are collected from particular regions. Since some regions have rich datasets that can easily generate knowledge for risk prediction, and some have no data available, this study addresses how we can leverage the knowledge learned from one grassland risk assessment to assist with a current assessment task. In this paper, we first introduce the transfer learning methodology to map and update risk maps in grassland fire management, and we propose a new grassland fire risk analysis method. In this study, two major grassland areas (Xilingol and Hulunbuir) in northern China are selected as the study areas, and five representative indicators (features) are extracted from grassland fuel, fire climate, accessibility, human and social economy. Taking Xilingol as the source domain (where sufficient labelled data are available) and Hulunbuir as the target domain (which contains insufficient data but requires risk assessment/prediction), we then establish the mapping relationship between grassland fire indicators and the degrees of grassland fire risk by using a transfer learning method. Finally, the fire risk in the Hulunbuir grassland is assessed using the transfer learning method. Experiments show that the prediction accuracy reached 87.5% by using the transfer learning method, representing a significant increase over existing methods.