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An efficient Bayesian experimental calibration of dynamic thermal models
- Raillon, L., Ghiaus, C.
- Energy 2018 v.152 pp. 818-833
- Bayesian theory, algorithms, energy, models, statistical analysis, uncertainty
- Experimental calibration of dynamic thermal models is required for model predictive control and characterization of building energy performance. In these applications, the uncertainty assessment of the parameter estimates is decisive; this is why a Bayesian calibration procedure (selection, calibration and validation) is presented. The calibration is based on an improved Metropolis-Hastings algorithm suitable for linear and Gaussian state-space models. The procedure, illustrated on a real house experiment, shows that the algorithm is more robust to initial conditions than a maximum likelihood optimization with a quasi-Newton algorithm. Furthermore, when the data are not informative enough, the use of prior distributions helps to regularize the problem.