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A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system

Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent, Chaiechi, Taha, Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul
Energy policy 2019 v.128 pp. 329-346
climatic factors, cost benefit analysis, electric energy consumption, electricity, electricity costs, emissions, energy, energy policy, environmental assessment, environmental policy, financial economics, fuels, hydrogen fuel cells, income, markets, planning, renewable energy sources, sales, Australia
This paper examines the impact of climate variability and change (CV&C), and energy policies on the future energy system in Australia. Scenarios were developed to represent CV&C impacts and policy options, which were analysed with the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning system for the period 2010–2050. The results indicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business-as-usual scenario, CV&C further increases demand to 150 petajoule. A combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 49–53% decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions. The economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to CV&C impacts. Higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independent electricity markets. Cumulative cost-benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to US$4.9 trillion in an advanced renewable energy scenario. Emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions, but decreased after policy intervention. Ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in underestimation of future energy demand and installed capacity in Australia. Therefore, energy and climate policies should consider long-term economic benefits over short-term system costs.