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Price Forecasting of Tomatoes

Reddy, A. Amarender
International journal of vegetable science 2019 v.25 no.2 pp. 176-184
Solanum lycopersicum, econometric models, growers, harvest date, market prices, markets, model validation, refrigeration, seasonal variation, supply balance, time series analysis, tomatoes
Due to the perishable nature of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), price fluctuates based on supply and demand. It is necessary to forecast harvest period tomato prices, so growers can make informed production decisions. This study includes seasonal variation in forecasting price, which is lacking in other models. Forecasting tomato prices was done using time series monthly average prices from January 2006 to December 2016. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to forecast prices. The model was validated for accuracy, but there were wide variations between upper and lower confidence limits of forecast prices for harvests from August to October. The forecast indicates that market prices of tomato would be in the range of Rs. 9300 to 32200∙Mt⁻¹ during August and September 2017, Rs. is Indian currency, 1US$ = 65 Rs. There were differences in prices across regions due to the lack of refrigerated transport facilities with localized markets rather than emergence of national markets. The model indicated that the prices during the harvest period fluctuated within a wide range, indicating low forecasting power of the econometric models for tomatoes.