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How can climate change affect the potential distribution of common genet Genetta genetta (Linnaeus 1758) in Europe?

Camps, David, Villero, Dani, Ruiz-Olmo, Jordi, Brotons, Lluís
Mammal research 2019 v.64 no.2 pp. 175-182
Genetta genetta, carnivores, climate change, climatic factors, geographical distribution, greenhouse gases, models, niches, predation, temperature, Africa, Europe
The common genet Genetta genetta is a carnivore of African origin introduced in Europe at least 13 centuries ago. Its distribution, located in the southwest of the continent, is chiefly constrained by climatic factors. With this premise, and taking into account the existing climate change projections, our goal was to assess possible changes in climatic suitability for common genet in Europe in the future. The maximum entropy statistical method was used to evaluate the potential effects of two greenhouse gas scenarios-low and high emissions-of an average ensemble of six different global circulation models. Projections showed that a large increase in climatically suitable habitat for common genet in continental Europe is likely in the next decades. In this way, the species range may expand within Europe to the east and north. The fact that the common genet may be favoured in a scenario of temperature increase is compatible with the origin of the species associated with hotter climates in Africa. However, despite these results, bioclimatic models do not represent the complete biotic and ecological niche of the species (e.g. competition, predation or dispersal ability), and a full understanding of potential future expansions should include factors that also determine the presence of the species at finer local scales. Bearing this in mind, we have to interpret our results as a first step towards the potential for species distribution change in the near future, but further work should incorporate environmental variability beyond climate in future projection assessments.