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A system dynamics model for emissions projection of hinterland transportation

Liu, Pei, Liu, Chao, Du, Jianbang, Mu, Dong
Journal of cleaner production 2019 v.218 pp. 591-600
dynamic models, environmental policy, greenhouse gas emissions, hinterland, long term effects, transportation, China
The rapid development of China's economy has led to a rapid increase in port throughput and made the issue of hinterland transport emissions more prominent. In this paper, a system dynamics model was established to project the long-term emissions of hinterland transportation. The model functions in a modular manner, consisting of core subsystems developed based on the classic four-step model of transportation, and several additional subsystems that are used to address the characteristics of the hinterland transport processes. The developed model was applied to a specific case in China to assess the long-term effects of alternative environmental policies on hinterland transport emissions. Through a comprehensive comparison of different policy scenarios, the model demonstrates explicitly how alternative environmental policies affect long-term emissions through a systematic intervention on a series of hinterland transport processes. The model also identifies the effective policies by which a lower emissions stock could be achieved. In addition, some suggestions for the policy making in hinterland transportation are provided.