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Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios

Tamura, Makoto, Kumano, Naoko, Yotsukuri, Mizuki, Yokoki, Hiromune
Climatic change 2019 v.152 no.3-4 pp. 363-377
climate change, coasts, databases, sea level
The objective of this study is to assess the global impact of sea level rise and to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation. Global areas of inundation due to sea level rise are identified. The affected populations and the economic damage caused by inundation due to future climate change are estimated for a number of scenarios involving Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The effects of adaptation in coastal areas, specifically the effects of elevating dikes, are evaluated. According to study results, dikes 1 m in height may reduce the total inundated area by approximately 40% below the no-adaptation baseline under the same RCP. The cost of adaptation was estimated using an original cost database to establish the cost of protection in future socioeconomic scenarios. It was found that the incremental adaptation cost was less than the economic damage in almost all cases of RCP/SSP, providing an incentive to take action to respond to climate change.