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Towards an integrated assessment of climate and socio-economic change impacts and implications in New Zealand

Ausseil, A.G.E., Daigneault, A.J., Frame, B., Teixeira, E.I.
Environmental modelling & software 2019 v.119 pp. 1-20
climate change, climatic factors, ecosystem services, land policy, models, socioeconomic factors, stakeholders, New Zealand
New Zealand's isolation and primarily land-based economy make it heavily dependent on future global climate and economic change. We combined global assumptions from the new IPCC scenario framework and local conditions to conduct a site-specific assessment of future scenarios. We used a spatially explicit integrated assessment that combined economic and biophysical models, to help quantify the potential impacts of a complex set of climate-induced impacts, coupled with regional environmental and land-use policy. Three scenarios were chosen, involving stakeholders, to gain insight into local sensitivity to climate versus socio-economic change. The results provide the direction of changes for demographic, economic, and environmental factors, including some ecosystem services. They highlight the strong influence of policies on regional economic output and ecosystem services relative to just accounting for the physical impacts of climate change. The quantitative modelling results might be used to identify adaptation options in light of climate change implications.