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Impact of PM10 and meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in female children in Ningbo, China: a spatiotemporal and time-series study

Huang, Ruixue, Ning, Huacheng, He, Tianfeng, Bian, Guolin, Hu, Jianan, Xu, Guozhang
Environmental science and pollution research international 2019 v.26 no.18 pp. 17974-17985
Poisson distribution, aerodynamics, children, disease outbreaks, females, hand, foot and mouth disease, meteorological parameters, nonlinear models, particulates, public health, relative risk, temperature, time series analysis, China
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a viral illness that is considered a critical public health challenge worldwide. Previous studies have demonstrated that meteorological parameters are significantly related to the incidence of HFMD in children; however, few studies have focused only on female children. This study quantified the associations of HFMD incidence with meteorological parameters and PM₁₀ (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm) among female children. Data were collected on daily HFMD cases, meteorological variables, and PM₁₀ levels in Ningbo, China, from January 2012 to December 2016. Data were assessed using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution. A total of 59,809 female children aged 0−15 years with HFMD were enrolled. The results showed that highest relative risk (RR) of HFMD for temperature was 3 °C and the lag effect was 3 days. The highest RR for PM₁₀ was 80 mg/m³ and the lag effect was 5 days. Spatial analysis showed that female HFMD incidence was mainly concentrated in the suburban of Ningbo city indicating that female children in this area should be more paid attention on avoiding this disease outbreak. Our findings suggest that HFMD prevention strategies should focus more attention on local meteorological parameters.