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Wind speed forecasting based on Quantile Regression Minimal Gated Memory Network and Kernel Density Estimation

Zhang, Zhendong, Qin, Hui, Liu, Yongqi, Yao, Liqiang, Yu, Xiang, Lu, Jiantao, Jiang, Zhiqiang, Feng, Zhongkai
Energy conversion and management 2019 v.196 pp. 1395-1409
algorithms, clean energy, energy, models, planning, prediction, probability distribution, regression analysis, uncertainty, wind power, wind speed, China
As a renewable and clean energy, wind energy plays an important role in easing the increasingly serious energy crisis. However, due to the strong volatility and randomness of wind speed, large-scale integration of wind energy is limited. Therefore, obtaining reliable high-quality wind speed prediction is of great importance for the planning and application of wind energy. The purpose of this study is to develop a hybrid model for short-term wind speed forecasting and quantifying its uncertainty. In this study, Minimal Gated Memory Network is proposed to reduce the training time without significantly decreasing the prediction accuracy. Furthermore, a new hybrid method combining Quantile Regression and Minimal Gated Memory Network is proposed to predict conditional quantile of wind speed. Afterwards, Kernel Density Estimation method is used to estimate wind speed probabilistic density function according to these conditional quantiles of wind speed. In order to make the model show better performance, Maximal Information Coefficient is used to select the feature variables while Genetic Algorithm is used to obtain optimal feature combinations. Finally, the performance of the proposed model is verified by seven state-of-the-art models through four cases in Inner Mongolia, China from five aspects: point prediction accuracy, interval prediction suitability, probability prediction comprehensive performance, forecast reliability and training time. The experimental results show that the proposed model is able to obtain point prediction results with high accuracy, suitable prediction interval and probability distribution function with strong reliability in a relatively short time on the prediction problems of wind speed.