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Low Impact Development Planning and Adaptation Decision-Making under Climate Change for a Community against Pluvial Flooding

Pei-Yuan Chen, Ching-Pin Tung, Yuan-Hua Li
Water 2017 v.9 no.10 pp. -
algorithms, climate, climate change, decision making, development planning, models, oceans, rain intensity, risk, storms, stormwater management, subwatersheds
This study integrates and develops methods, namely low impact development (LID) selection method and an LID spatial planning model, to enable decision-making to minimize pluvial flooding for a community. The objective is to minimize the flood risk under the worst case of the design storm within the budget constraints. Design storms in current and future climate scenarios are analyzed as input to the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Then, LID practices are selected based on the proposed procedure and a spatial planning model is built to identify the optimal LID layouts using the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm. The lower and upper bounds of the generated rainfall intensities of a five-year 1-h duration design storms for the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 for the atmosphere and oceans (HadGEM2-AO), the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-ME), and the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 Atmosphere-Ocean GCM (CSIRO-Mk3.6.0) during 2021–2040 are derived. The LID selection helps efficiently identify appropriate LID. Results show that nearly no flood occurs under the optimal LID layouts found by the LID spatial planning model. Moreover, it is more optimal to invest in LID in the lower sub-catchments in LID planning when the budget is limited. These methods are generally applicable for a community using LIDs as adaptation measures against pluvial flooding.