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Economic policy uncertainty shocks, economic activity, and exchange rate adjustments

Author:
Nilavongse, Rachatar, Rubaszek, Michał,, Uddin, Gazi Salah
Source:
Economics letters 2020 v.186 pp. 108765
ISSN:
0165-1765
Subject:
economic policy, models, uncertainty, United Kingdom
Abstract:
We investigate the impact of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on the UK economy. Simulations with a structural VAR model indicate that domestic industrial production declines after a shock to the EPU index in the US. On the contrary, disturbances to domestic uncertainty are an important source of real exchange rate fluctuations. Historical decomposition shows that a surge in domestic EPU after Brexit referendum was the reason behind a massive depreciation of the British pound. These results are robust to different model specifications.
Agid:
6741588