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Effects of future climate change on summer maize growth in Shijin Irrigation District

Li, Fawen, Liu, Yang, Yan, Wenhui, Zhao, Yong, Jiang, Rengui
Theoretical and applied climatology 2020 v.139 no.1-2 pp. 33-44
Zea mays, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, crop yield, deforestation, irrigation, models, quantitative analysis, rain, temperature
The paper selected Shijin Irrigation District as the study area. Considering the future climate change, the paper studied the effects of climate change on summer maize growth. The effects of climate change on summer maize yield were quantitatively analyzed by combining the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and AquaCrop model. The results showed that under the RCP4.5 scenario, the future yield of summer maize in Shijin Irrigation District was mainly reduced, but the yield change showed an upward trend. When the direct impact of CO₂ is not considered, the yield change ranged from − 6.72~− 3.04%, and the deforestation rate of summer maize is 10.795 kg for every 1 °C increase in growth period. The increase of summer maize is 3.35 kg for every 1 mm increase in rainfall. When considering the direct impact of CO₂, the yield change ranged from − 4.04~+ 0.11%. It can be seen that CO₂ can compensate for the production reduction effect caused by rising temperature.